The Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline
TAPI in competition with IPI
The Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAP or TAPI) is a proposed natural gas pipeline being developed by the Asian Development Bank. The pipeline will transport Caspian Sea natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India.
The proposed pipeline will have a capacity of 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas per annum. The 1,680 km pipeline will run from the Daulatabad gas field to Afghanistan. From there it will be constructed along side the highway running from Herat to Kandahar, and then via Quetta and Multan in Pakistan.
The final destination of the pipeline will be the Indian town of Fazilka, near the border between Pakistan and India. The pipeline will be 1,420 mm in diameter with a working pressure of 100 atm and a capacity of 33 billion cubic metres (BCM) of natural gas annually. The cost of this international infrastructure is estimated at $4 billion. The deal on the pipeline was signed in December 2002 by the leaders of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Although three countries will benefit this gas pipeline but India was considered as a big market by Turkmenistan. Because, India’s demand cannot be met entirely from domestic production and the country has to look elsewhere for sourcing its natural gas needs. An option to import gas on every side of the country’s borders is the best solve of this problem.
Therefore, the ADB proposed the meeting for November 28-29 (2007) in Islamabad, which would include India in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline (TAPI) project. The agenda would be to bring together the four nations for signing of the Heads of Agreement (HoA) and the Gas Pipeline Framework Agreement (GPFA).
But this question about Iran – Pakistan -India gas pipeline remains, whether TAPI will replace IPI?
TAPI replace IPI?
Dr. Singh about Iran and Turkmenistan gas said India needed both. "It is not a question of preferring one over the other. Our needs for commercial energy are increasing at an explosive rate. ... There is an enormous unmet demand for commercial energy which is set to increase, so we need both the pipelines, the pipeline from Iran-Pakistan-India and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India one.”
At the same time, General Pervez Musharraf said Pakistan stands by its support to Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project. The President said that the country was already committed to it and any other gas pipeline. "We would accept the pipeline to pass through the country." It was also to our advantage, he said adding that the country’s stand on the issue remained unchanged.
As a matter of fact, evidences also has proven that the Turkmenistan project is not being seen as an alternative to the other gas pipeline projects proposed by Iran and Myanmar, especially as India would need to import about 200 million standard cubic metres per day (MMSCMD) of gas by 2020.
But, it is clear that India and Pakistan have looked to TAPI as alternative of IPI at least till the time that Iran’s conflict with US and EU on nuclear issue exists.
Although both countries have declared that this project is not preferable compared to the gas project with Iran but it seems that TAPI is going to be replaced by Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) proposed pipeline. In fact India boycotted a critical meeting in Tehran in early October in order to sign the IPI agreement; Turkmenistan is also capable to supply the Pakistan’s demand.
Unlike the one-step-forward-two-steps-back deliberations going on between Iran and India over the Gas Sales Purchase Agreement (GSPA) or the project execution, or between India and Pakistan over pipeline tariff and transit fee, and at the same time some experts believe that India, under intense US pressure to abandon the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, will attend a crucial steering committee meeting of the ADB-backed Turkmenistan gas pipeline project in Islamabad next month.
We need to take this into consideration that although TAPI agreement would benefit all countries, in such a manner that Turkmenistan’s dependency to Russia will be reduced afterwards, Afghanistan will be privileged by pipeline transit through it, Pakistan demands to gas will be satisfied and finally it will partially fulfill the need of India to energy, but however it is important that TAPI is more secure than IPI.
In fact, conflicts in southwest of Afghanistan and Baluchistan have impact on the project; some analysis believes that circumstances for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan gas pipeline project are not suitable. But it seems that cooperation among the members to provide security for the project has been successful.
Security of the TAPI
Security for the pipeline is the most important issue that all investors have been trying for. In fact, the first choice route when the project was originally conceived some around 13-year ago was through south of Afghanistan -- an area under strong control of then Taliban government.
However, since the American-backed domination of the Northern Alliance in Kabul, things have changed. The government in Kabul had little or no writ in areas outside Kabul. However, the Afghan minister insisted that Kabul would ensure security for laying, operation and maintenance of the ambitious project.
At the same time, some reports had indicated that the United States was willing to police the pipeline infrastructure through permanent stationing of its troops in the region and there was a notion that many American firms were keen on joining the project.
On the other hand, the ADB had proposed a multilateral arrangement, including participation of all the member states. Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan had signed a trilateral framework agreement for keeping security of pipeline, thus the Bank had approved $ 1 mm for the feasibility study of the project.
Therefore these factors would make India realize that whatever security considerations it might have could be taken care of by the presence of the US OPIC political guarantees and participation of the multilateral agencies like the ADB and the World Bank, which would doubly ensure the sustainability over long-term basis.
Therefore it seems that, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project is to be accelerated and the dedicated efforts to develop a technically and commercially viable project are currently on.
Thus , Iran has to consider that IPI in competition with TAPI does not have a chance and it seems that India’s participation in the project is a great defeat for Iran.