The U.S. Midterm Elections and Iran

As emphasized by the Obama administration, the basic concerns of the United States in the Middle East include: ending the crises in Iraq and Afghanistan (and also Lebanon and Palestine), fighting against al-Qaeda terrorism, somehow related to “nuclear terrorism”, and curbing Iran’s nuclear crisis. Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, American administrations have deliberately tied these problems, which are in nature related to foreign policy issues, to national security and domestic affairs of the country. For instance, the alarmist attitude towards ‘nuclear terrorism’ as a great challenge can be seen as the Obama’s administration’s initiative to link a key foreign policy concern to a domestic issue and internal security in order to dramatize the threat of terrorism in its most recent incarnation and put public opinion on alert. This will create both challenges and opportunities for the Obama administration. 

In terms of the challenges, American citizens today see a direct connection between the Iraq war expenses, estimated by some to be as high as 800 billion dollars, on the one hand and the lingering economic stagnation and unemployment in the United States on the other. For this reason, the American public is now calling for the immediate and complete withdrawal of the U.S. troops from Iraq. Afghanistan’s story has its own distinctive dynamics. The battle against al-Qaeda is regarded as an urgent concern which is a matter of domestic security. For U.S. public opinion, the fight against al-Qaeda terrorism, given the continued horror evoked by the 9/11 attacks, remains a sensitive and emotional issue concerning Americans’ domestic security and daily life. Thus, the success or failure of the Obama administration in accomplishing its counter-terrorism mission in Afghanistan before the scheduled withdrawal in July 2011 and eradication of al-Qaeda terrorism is absolutely crucial as far as American public opinion is concerned. 

Regarding Iran’s nuclear program, the American administrations since George W. Bush have mistakenly tied Iran’s nuclear program to ‘nuclear weapons’ proliferation’ and ‘deterrence’, thus turning it into an issue related to U.S. national security or even a threat to global security. In fact, U.S. governmental strategists have tried to establish a connection between Middle East security on the one hand, and the United States’ internal security and global security on the other, in order to gain the attention of the American public. 

As serious and troublesome as these challenges have been for the Obama administration, their resolution would be a great success for U.S. foreign policy, tilting domestic opinion in favor of the Obama administration. Any achievement, however, hinges upon the pursuit and implementation of the “change” policy in diplomacy and cooperation with major regional actors in Middle East. 

Among the regional players, no other actor apart from Iran is able to help the United States overcome the existing challenges to the region. Following the parliamentary elections of Iraq in March 2010 and the long-time deadlock which had stalled formation of the coalition government for nearly 8 months and the West’s disappointing efforts to talk with the Taliban, it is now  crystal-clear that the United States cannot tackle these crises single-handedly and needs Iran’s cooperation as the main regional actor in settling the crises in Iraq and Afghanistan, either during the presence and even after the withdrawal of American troops from both countries. The importance of this issue becomes manifest as one realizes that curbing terrorist activities in this region is directly connected to the establishment of security and stability in the region after the withdrawal of foreign troops. In such circumstances, Iran’s role for the establishment and preservation of stability becomes crucial. 

Direct talks and the resolution of Iran’s nuclear program constitute no meager feat in the removal of the so-called ‘national security threat’ for the Obama administration in the eyes of American public opinion. One can realize the magnitude of direct talks cognizant of the fact that for three decades since the initial severing of relations between Iran and the United States, no American president has managed to find a sustained solution to deal with Iran. Washington has used all the accessible levers - pressure, sanctions, and threat of war against Iran to no avail. This time, direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington and an attempt to solve the so-called ‘Iran problem’ once and all could offer a precious opportunity for the Obama administration to garner the support of the American public. 

Some analysts tend to agree that with the Democrats’ defeat in congressional midterm elections, Obama is now in a weaker domestic position under pressure by the Republicans, in such a way that he will inevitably be forced take a more aggressive and proactive line in his foreign policy.  Even to perhaps engage in an effort as serious as initiating a war against Iran in order to show the strength of his administration on the global stage. However, President Obama knows well that the United States cannot reclaim its hegemony through waging another war in the Middle East. On the contrary, any new war may rebound on Washington and would be perceived as a war on the entire Middle East. Not only would its global ramifications aggravate the stagnation of the U.S. economy or even the global economy, but also provoke further dissatisfaction among the U.S. public and could challenge U.S. global legitimacy across the world. 

In such circumstances, direct negotiations with Iran present a precious opportunity to resolve major diplomatic problems in the Middle East and reinforce Obama’s stance on the foreign policy scene. The upcoming talks between Iran and P5+1 take actual steps in order to achieve a sustained solution that brings relative satisfaction to both sides and alleviates the current tension in dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Moving along this path is imperative for persuasion of the American public and securing a victory in 2012 presidential elections. This latest development could bring a new opportunity for direct talks between Iran and the United States.

* Kayhan Barzegar is a faculty member at the Science and Research Campus, Islamic Azad University. He is also the director of international affairs at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran.