Will Israel Attack Iran?

18 August 2010 | 19:20 Code : 8190 Review

Engaging in a war is not as easy as boasting about doing so. By Hossein Ala’i.

Since its inception in 1948, Israel has had a knack for attacking its neighbors. In fact, a key characteristic of this regime is its advanced aggressive military capability. Syria, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan have all had a taste of Tel Aviv’s atrocities. This has been an Israeli strategy from the start.

That said, a military attack against any regional state (or resistance organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas) is unlikely at the moment. For one thing, Israel has not yet set the stage –particularly in the media- for such a raid. The media have always seemed to be keen on Israel’s threats against Iran, but that does not mean an Israeli attack will provoke no sentiments.

There is significance also in Israel’s potential target. Palestinians have been subject to regular –albeit limited- attacks by Israel. At the moment, in the West Bank and Jerusalem Palestinians are losing their land and their homes to Israeli expansionism. But there is a certain price to be paid if the Jewish state dares to attack Lebanon, or better said, Hezbollah (although the Israelis have recently made it clear that they consider attacking Lebanese infrastructures as legitimate in case of a war against Hezbollah). An Israeli attack will not be left unanswered. Israel can certainly launch a war, but whether it can end one is a matter of question.

Can Iran’s nuclear facilities become a target for Israel? Every now and then we hear such rumors, although they have become much more intensive in recent days. Demolishing Iran’s nuclear sites has been Israel’s dream for long, but is Tel Aviv competent do so? The country has limited military capacity and logistically, it would be in dire need of U.S. (and pro-U.S. regional states’) assistance. But attack Iran and suffer decades of tension in Middle East.

Palestine could be an illustrative example to picture the consequences of an attack against Iran. Sixty years of regular raids on Palestinians have distorted the face of Middle East. The Palestinian problem has turned into an indispensible item on the diplomatic list of every U.S. president. And after years of bloodshed, the two-state solution has been acknowledged as the only option which can bring peace and security to Israel.

Will the U.S. embrace new tension and conflict in the Middle East when Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Palestine are in their present imbroglios? The most likely answer is a big no. Washington has been mired in Afghanistan for nine years, without making significant progress. And almost 8 years have passed since American troops occupied Iraq. Attacking Iran will bring consequences much more extensive, complicated, and unpredictable than either of those two conflicts.

Boasting about going to war is easy, but engaging in it is not. Obama, who had promised to make a ‘change’ to Bush’s policies will definitely avoid entering terra incognita.