No Country for Competent Men
Can Egyptian opposition oust the Mubarak family from power? By Karim Ja’fari
In 2011, Egypt will hold its second competitive presidential election. Significance of the election: 80-year old Husni Mubarak has decided to leave office after thirty year and rule over the land of Arab writers will be handed to another figure. Another significance: Egyptians are nearly 100 percent sure about the final result of election: the next president is no one but Husni Mubarak’s ambitious son, Jamal. This dire possibility has driven many Egyptians, especially the educated, to plan for ousting the Mubarak family from power, but not under the leadership of an insider.
When in 2009 Husni Mubarak announced his decision to step down, journalists, cultural figures and dissident politicians started their search for a figure who could challenge the repressive rule in Egypt and put an end to the reign of Mubarak dynasty. Experience gained from previous election had proved that in the land of Pharaohs, Mubarak would resort to anything to hold his grip on power.
The 80-year old president of course has an impressive record in sidelining potential contenders. In the 1990s he pushed Amr Musa out of Egypt’s political structure and exiled him to the Arab League, so that he could forget his political ambitions for presidency. Head of Egyptian intelligence forces Omar Suleyman has also been reduced to a mere agent of Mubarak.
The choices have been limited for Egyptian citizens so far. The political repression and disposal system has now turned Egypt into ‘no country for competent men’ where no one dares to enter a fight with the Mubarak family. The case of Ayman al-Nour, leader of the al-Wafd party who challenged Mubarak in the previous presidential election and was later sentenced to jail has given every potential contender a glimpse of what awaits them.
Bitter experience of three decades of dictatorship has forced the Egyptian opposition to look forward to a figure who cannot be knocked down by the Mubaraks, and enjoys a level of international prestige that can help defend people’s choice. Opposition’s choice looks informed: Muhammad ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Egypt has never been bare of accomplished thinkers, writers and politicians during the recent decades. But the atmosphere of terror spread by the government has given chances of success only to those smalltime, incapable politicians who cling to the ruling party. Corruption, subordination and authoritarian behavior are the trademark of all such political faces.
The 67-year old ElBaradei has the experience of ruling a key international organization. He is a well-known international figure who cannot be easily smear-campaigned by the power-holders or be integrated in their corrupt political system. He is not affiliated with any of the power circles in Egypt and Mubarak had no role in his election as IAEA chief. His independence and non-authoritarian character seem to be his virtues. ElBaradei has lived in Europe for years and knows what democracy and freedom taste like. That could make him the best champion for civil rights of Egyptians who spend their day under the terror of their country’s intelligence service.
Former IAEA chief has a good chance to gain the support of educated citizens and opposition, but what he needs most is the support of Egyptian masses. These people are strongly against Mubarak’s policies vis-à-vis Israel and his treatment of Gazans. ElBaradei’s attitude towards Israel may be an issue for this people. We know about his visits to this Jewish state and his possible inclination to raise the level of bilateral ties to a new level.
Anyway, for ElBaradei who entered Cairo on Friday under heavy security, the 2011 presidential elections can be a quite different experience. Although he has set terms for participation in the election, Mubarak’s military regime doesn’t seem ready to compromise. Next important factor: is the Muslim Brotherhood, the most popular non-governmental movement of Egypt ready to support ElBaradei and form an alliance in order to get rid of the Mubarak clan?
Upcoming weeks and months in the Nile Delta will have a massive impact on the future of Middle East. The successor to Mubarak will form new political equations in the region. More than Egypt’s regional weight, this is because of the unrestrained power of the president. It approximates the authority of an eighteenth century dictator.
When in 2009 Husni Mubarak announced his decision to step down, journalists, cultural figures and dissident politicians started their search for a figure who could challenge the repressive rule in Egypt and put an end to the reign of Mubarak dynasty. Experience gained from previous election had proved that in the land of Pharaohs, Mubarak would resort to anything to hold his grip on power.
The 80-year old president of course has an impressive record in sidelining potential contenders. In the 1990s he pushed Amr Musa out of Egypt’s political structure and exiled him to the Arab League, so that he could forget his political ambitions for presidency. Head of Egyptian intelligence forces Omar Suleyman has also been reduced to a mere agent of Mubarak.
The choices have been limited for Egyptian citizens so far. The political repression and disposal system has now turned Egypt into ‘no country for competent men’ where no one dares to enter a fight with the Mubarak family. The case of Ayman al-Nour, leader of the al-Wafd party who challenged Mubarak in the previous presidential election and was later sentenced to jail has given every potential contender a glimpse of what awaits them.
Bitter experience of three decades of dictatorship has forced the Egyptian opposition to look forward to a figure who cannot be knocked down by the Mubaraks, and enjoys a level of international prestige that can help defend people’s choice. Opposition’s choice looks informed: Muhammad ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Egypt has never been bare of accomplished thinkers, writers and politicians during the recent decades. But the atmosphere of terror spread by the government has given chances of success only to those smalltime, incapable politicians who cling to the ruling party. Corruption, subordination and authoritarian behavior are the trademark of all such political faces.
The 67-year old ElBaradei has the experience of ruling a key international organization. He is a well-known international figure who cannot be easily smear-campaigned by the power-holders or be integrated in their corrupt political system. He is not affiliated with any of the power circles in Egypt and Mubarak had no role in his election as IAEA chief. His independence and non-authoritarian character seem to be his virtues. ElBaradei has lived in Europe for years and knows what democracy and freedom taste like. That could make him the best champion for civil rights of Egyptians who spend their day under the terror of their country’s intelligence service.
Former IAEA chief has a good chance to gain the support of educated citizens and opposition, but what he needs most is the support of Egyptian masses. These people are strongly against Mubarak’s policies vis-à-vis Israel and his treatment of Gazans. ElBaradei’s attitude towards Israel may be an issue for this people. We know about his visits to this Jewish state and his possible inclination to raise the level of bilateral ties to a new level.
Anyway, for ElBaradei who entered Cairo on Friday under heavy security, the 2011 presidential elections can be a quite different experience. Although he has set terms for participation in the election, Mubarak’s military regime doesn’t seem ready to compromise. Next important factor: is the Muslim Brotherhood, the most popular non-governmental movement of Egypt ready to support ElBaradei and form an alliance in order to get rid of the Mubarak clan?
Upcoming weeks and months in the Nile Delta will have a massive impact on the future of Middle East. The successor to Mubarak will form new political equations in the region. More than Egypt’s regional weight, this is because of the unrestrained power of the president. It approximates the authority of an eighteenth century dictator.