Israeli Scenario Too Scary for the United States

It seems that Israel and the United States disagree on two key issues, Iran and Jewish settlements. How serious is this disagreement?

To answer this question, at first we need a model. And before providing a model we have to see what the problems between Israel and the United States are. Before Netanyahu’s visit to the United States, the problems mainly concerned extremists seizing power in Israel. They are making provocative remarks. A few weeks ago, the Israeli prime minister made a speech in Israeli National Defense College and said that no one wants a repeat of what happened in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel is causing problems for Lebanon and is encumbering the Arab-Israeli peace process. Obama has demanded Israel to stop construction of settlements in West Bank. This is the least Americans could ask. All U.S. representatives, advisors, Deputy Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton and George Mitchell have visited Middle East to solve these problems.

Israel is taking a tough stand on all their efforts. It wants to strengthen its situation and is not ready to please Palestinians in any way. But on the other hand, Barack Obama is trying to rebuild United States’ image in the Middle East and also approach Syria. Bashar Assad has also invited the U.S. president to visit Damascus.

However, without the United States’ support there is little Israel can do, unless it launches another Osirak scenario for Iran. If America doesn’t joint the first stage of the scenario, it will be compelled to join the next stages. But that would add to its already overwhelming problems in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.

Meanwhile, the United States intends to stabilize Middle East. There are other crises going on in this region such as the failed coup in Qatar, Saudi Arabia unrest, the turmoil in northern and southern Yemen which has pushed this country to the verge of collapse and economic problems of Arab states. The region is one step closer to explosion.

Israel may initiate its plan, but the problem is that Iran’s response, its extent and intensity, are not clear. Iran has frequently stated that it would not remain silent against any Israeli attack. Israel is strategically vulnerable regarding the location of its nuclear facilities and population density. Assuming that this scenario is not going to be enacted, we will face some regional realities. I believe that Middle East can not sustain another war.

At present, United States is trying to persuade Israel to forget about a military solution. Israel, on the other hand, is convincing America to exert further pressure on Iran and impose tougher international political, social and economic sanctions against it.

Some American analysts believe that tougher sanctions will not subdue Iran. What do you think?

The sanctions Iran is currently facing, i.e. the smart sanctions, have one purpose and that is South Africanizing the country and stripping it of its allies. Some analyses support this interpretation. And you remember that during the apartheid era, Israel was the only supporter of South Africa. Of course Iran and South Africa have a lot of differences.

Obama has declared that he is ready to engage in unconditional talks with Iran. Americans’ current remarks show that they are waiting for Iran’s response. I don’t believe that the sanctions have been fruitless. However, even if these sanctions fail to curb Iran, the military solution is a great risk. The Arab street and Middle East states are not supportive of Israel and Iran’s retaliation will lead to a turmoil that can not be endured anymore by the region.

In an article in Time weekly, Tony Karon has said that tougher sanctions against Iran are futile. He also believes that the sanction on gasoline export to Iran will fail since Turkey and Iraq will not cooperate. So how are the sanctions going to be effective?

This is a pressure from outside and explosion from inside scenario. It is not necessary to irritate Iran such that it would have to purchase gasoline from Iraq, Turkey or any other country. If Americans simply impose new sanctions, that means they have entered a new stage in facing Iran. But they have not moved to that place yet.

Some American officials believe that with tougher sanctions, it is not the government but the Iranian people who suffer. They say that sanction directly affect peoples’ lives.

Sanctions intend to separate people from the regime. However, their ultimate goal is non-military, internal-stimulated change. On the military aspect, the only thing Americans can do is to delay military solution.

Definitely they can not exterminate Iran’s nuclear knowledge, and Iran’s reaction to any military strike can spin things out of control. As is said, Middle East is not ready for another war. So Obama is still looking for soft, non-military ways to settle issues with Iran.

How do you see nuclear umbrella Hillary Clinton has referred to?

Such remarks prove my analysis. Americans are thinking of how to react if Iran goes nuclear. They know that a military reaction is harmful so they are elaborating on a nuclear umbrella which is a sort of guarantee for Israel. With the contingency of Iran’s nuclearization Israelis are testing their new military fighters, French have signed nuclear contracts with UAE, and Russians are going to cooperate with Turks on construction of nuclear power plants. Americans are ready to set up a defense nuclear umbrella for Middle East just like the one they established via NATO for European countries against the Soviet Union threat.

However, I believe that diplomacy is still the best solution. War will lead to violence and hatred and the region is not strong enough to endure that. United States’ efforts to disarm Hezbollah, boycott Hamas, detach Syria from Iran and set Turkey as a broker between themselves and Iran etc. are all steps forward in order to isolate Iran. Americans are moving in the diplomatic path.