Iran Is Following the Game in Israel’s Court

For the first time during the recent years, Israel’s intelligence agencies have dubbed Iran an existential threat in an official report. Our interview with Mahmud Shams-ol-Vaezin, Middle East expert:

What is behind increasing speculations on Iran and Israel’s likely confrontation in 2009?

Firstly, the power balance in Middle East has tilted towards Iran. Israel has always strived to remain as the superior power in Middle East, surpassing the collective power of other Middle East countries. Now, with Iran’s apparently increasing deterrent power, Israel struggles to reinstate the former mode, i.e. its unquestionable military predominance. Also, United States’ unreserved support for Israel –at least during the last 4 decades- has developed an increasing intolerance for Israel towards any attempt to reconfigure regional military equilibrium. These are major roots of the current crisis and it seems Israel tends more to terrorize other Middle East countries rather than threaten Iran.

What is the connection between Knesset elections and spotlighting Iran’s threat?

This has a long history. In Israel, during the parliamentary elections political parties, especially moderates and rightist hard-liners cash in on domestic and regional issues. With the fierce competition between Kadima and Likud to form the cabinet, Iran and Palestine are reliable vote-attractors.

In fact, Israel keeps on pretending to be vulnerable in order to gain international aids and unite the immigrant Jews. But this policy has backfired. Within the span of one generation’s life, immigrants will deduce that Tel Aviv and all its successive governments haven’t been successful in creating political and military stability. Israeli leaders are aware of the reverse immigration. This policy has become hackneyed and it has failed to create solidarity inside the Israeli society. They should find other ways to keep Israelis united.

Head of the US intelligence Dennis Blair has talked of a liable confrontation between Iran and Israel in 2009. Where is United States located within this conflict?

As I predicted, immediately after the war in Gaza Israel would increase pressure on Iran, since Iran has managed to transfer the conflict to Israel’s court and this has terrified the Jewish state. Actually, Israel is unable to control Iran single-handed. So it seeks to represent the whole story as an international problem. This is at odds with Washington’s new policy, and even with Bush’s late policies. Bush ignored requests made by the American Jewish lobby for attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now that Obama seeks a face-to-face talk to Iran, the United States opposes further pressures on Iran more than any other country.

There is also anther point. Little by little it becomes clear that Iran is following an unproblematic nuclear program and Obama administration hasn’t received any reports that testify a secret military plan. Therefore, it seems that we will witness friction between US and Israel over Iran’s nuclear program in the future.

How far can a likely negotiation between Tehran and Washington affect the clash between Iran and Israel?

Israel wants to outreach Iran and hinder Iran-US negotiations, or either put more serious issues on negotiations’ agenda. Possibly Israel will not succeed in this area. However, United States will attempt to undermine regional and international supports for Iran before the talks start. US opposition to selling advanced weapons to Iran and its criticism of Tehran’s Middle East policies are in this accord, and aimed to force Tehran to concede. US is trying to picture an unpleasant image of Tehran’s international status, to gain the lead in talks and impose its demands. However, we should wait and see how Iranian and American leaders will pursue the strenuous task of negotiations –which may even be more difficult than confrontation- and how it will affect other regional actors.

Keywords: Iran-US relations. Iran-Israel relations.