Negotiations on Iraq and Afghanistan, mitigation on nuclear issue

In his recent news conference, Barack Obama the president-elect of United States reiterated two points on Iran. First that he still believes in talks with Iran. Second, Iran is still a serious threat to U.S. national security. Following comes a related analysis by Davoud Hermidas Bavand, university professor and a U.S. affairs analyst:

Two weeks before moving to office, Mr. Obama has signaled three attitudes towards Iran. During the presidential campaign he had emphasized that if elected as the U.S. president, he will start direct talks with Iran and Cuba. However, his later comments where contradicting, when he spoke of imposing blockade on Iran’s energy import and export to force it stop the uranium enrichment program. Another remark by Obama was that Iran’s stances were a serious threat for United States. On Friday, while reemphasizing Iran’s threat, Obama stated that new mechanisms must be followed in negotiations with Iran.

Meanwhile, he stated that he wouldn’t talk about Iran before moving to the presidential office. The truth is that if we want to analyze what Obama says, we must look at his audience. That would be clear if we see how he speaks for Zionist groups. But at any rate, he has highlighted negotiations with Iran, starting from lower levels and moving to senior levels in case of successful talks.

Why negotiations?

As Gen. Petraus once mentioned, Iran and the United States have common interests in Iraq and Afghanistan. If we reach agreements on these issues a path will be opened towards negotiations on the nuclear program. But if we want to focus on the nuclear program from the beginning there will be problems. It will of great benefit for the two parties to run talks on fields which have a higher chance of agreement. If successful, talks on Iraq and Afghanistan will have likely positive effects on nuclear negotiations.

Negotiations with Iran and the country’s role in Middle East

There are two intersecting fields of interest between Iran and the United States in Afghanistan. First is that Taliban’s return to power will harm both countries. Second is the narcotic cultivated in Afghanistan. The circumstances have also changed in Iraq. With the security pact signed between Iraq and the United States, American troops will move out of cities in the new year and by 2011 they will leave Iraq completely. Considering these, Tehran and Washington can start a new round of talks.

The climate is different compared with some months ago. Now the Iraqi government has taken control of most of Iraq’s affairs, so the interests of the Iraqi government should be also taken into consideration. In fact, the talks aren’t merely related to Iran and the United States anymore: Iraq is also involved. The Americans expect Iran to show more flexibility on Iraq so that they attain some mutual understanding, if not agreement. If this happens, inevitably there will be a more promising atmosphere in the nuclear talks.