Tehran, IAEA and Obama!

In the latest report, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei has emphasized that "Contrary to the decisions of the Security Council, Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities, having continued... the installation of new cascades and the operation of new generation centrifuges for test purposes."

According to this report, the International Atomic Energy Agency, despite six years of intensive investigation, is no closer to determining whether Iran’s disputed nuclear drive is entirely peaceful as Tehran claims.

"Iran needs to provide the agency with substantive information to support its statements and provide access to relevant documentation and individuals in this regard," ElBaradei said. He added that "Unless Iran provides such transparency... the agency will not be able to provide credible assurances about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran."

In the last two years, four UN security resolutions have been issued, calling on Iran to stop the Uranium enrichment activities. But Iran has continued its own path and as stated in Elbaradei’s report, it has even increased its enrichment capacity.

Iran is "confidently" pursuing this course. Conversely, the west (under US leadership) is so confused and undecided against Iran. At the same time, the economic pressures and trade sanctions on Iran did not fruit because in the past several months, the oil price was still high and the economic pressures could not influence the nuclear decisions of Iran.

If we look at the reactions of western countries to Iran’ nuclear case, we would clearly see their indetermination and passivity.

This is what Gordon Johndroe, the US deputy Press Secretary, has said about the new IAEA report on Iran: "The Iranian government’s failure to comply with the IAEA and UN is unfortunate and disappointing."

UK Foreign Office Minister of State, Bill Rammell, has reacted in the same way, saying that Iran’s continuing failure to co-operate with the IAEA or to answer its questions increases concerns about Iran’s nuclear programs and its intentions. He has also stated that "It is vital that Iran urgently and comprehensively provides the IAEA with all the requested information, documentation and access."

A little thinking on such comments shows that the west has not been able to stop Iran from enrichment and nuclear activities. The west is only depending on expressing concerns or at most, threats on the nuclear activities of Iran. At the same time, the so called western Carrots have been fruitless in reaching an agreement with Tehran.

According to Johndroe, Iranian compliance could unlock a package of economic and diplomatic incentives -- including an offer for talks between US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her counterpart.

The countries of the 5+1 group (including the US, UK, Russia, France, China and Germany) have desperately tried to stop Iran’s Uranium enrichment by offering a package of incentives. But as stated in Rammel’s comments, "Iran continues to enrich and to increase its capacity to enrich in breach of five UN Security Council resolutions."

Changing this course by Iran is not probable in the near future. So the relations of Iran and the west especially on the nuclear case would continue in the same way. Anyhow, the key to change the current situation is in Barack Obama’s hands. One could not expect changes unless Obama’s real entrance to the White House.

Whether it is the west-Iran negotiations kicking off, or whether it is intensifying the tensions and sanctions imposed on Iran, every thing depends on the new tenant of the White House. (Do not forget that in one of his campaigning speeches, Obama referred to imposing restrictions on Iran gas import).

One can predict that the future US actions towards Iran are highly dependent on Iran’s presidential election. If Muhammad Khatami sets foot on the competition, the west would set back and stop its past probable plans for Iran. The other option is Obama and democrats starting negotiations with Iran during Ahmadinejad’s presidency. This would increase his chances of winning the next presidential election.