Obama a Less Costly Option for Iran

As long as a new American government has not taken over and as long as the outcome of the next presidential polls in Iran is not known it is unlikely to see a significant development in relations between Tehran and Washington.

What follows is a note written by Dr. Naser Hadian, university professor and expert in US affairs.

 

Following news reports that the non-governmental American Iranian Council is trying to open in office in Tehran, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chairman of the National Security Committee of the Iranian parliament voiced opposition to the idea which has already received the green light from the US administration. In the meantime and simultaneously with Boroujerdi’s negative stance, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, commenting on a US plan to open an interest section office in Tehran staffed by American diplomats, said it was an interesting idea and being studied by American officials.

Dr. Naser Hadian, university professor and expert in US affairs has written the following note on the new developments in Tehran-Washington relations.

 

The US administration has not kept silent vis-à-vis the opening of an interest section or operation of the American Iranian Council in Tehran. When the issue of setting up an interest section in Tehran is on the agenda of US statesmen or when the Bush administration authorizes AIC to operate in Iran this means they are supporting the new measures being taken in line with improvement of relations between Tehran and Washington. Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman commenting on a decision by AIC to start activities in Iran, has said that the Council should obtain permission from the IRI Interior Ministry. A decision by the Interior Ministry would mean a kind of response to the AIC request.

In any event, the operation of AIC in Iran would be important because it is a nongovernmental institution and works for improvement of relations between Iran and US. However, I do not believe the Council has much weight as far as reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and US is concerned. If we assume the highest level of Iran-US ties to be resumption of diplomatic ties and the lowest level to be people to people contacts, the latter has always existed. The AIC request to operate in Tehran is only a bit higher than the level of the exchanges already existing between the two peoples because an institution or organization seeking improvement of bilateral relations in both countries is in the process of formation.

In continuation of these efforts, we must see the extent of contacts between the parliaments of the two countries and eventually the two governments. The opening or not opening of a US interest section in Tehran too would make sense in this connection because the launch of the office would create a level of diplomatic relations between Iran and US per se. These are the different levels that can be envisaged between Tehran and Washington.

If we grade Iran-US relations between 1 and 100 and assume that good diplomatic relations would get 100 marks and people to people relations 1 mark, I think the present mark stands at 15 due to relations between the two peoples. If AIC is authorized to operate in Iran it would only improve the grade from 15 to 18 and therefore leave no significant impact on the level of relations.

As long as a new American government has not taken over and as long as the outcome of the next presidential polls in Iran is not known it is unlikely to see a significant development in relations between Tehran and Washington. Until then, any steps taken in this relation would be to prepare the grounds for reestablishment of ties.

The election of Mr. Obama could have both positive and negative consequences due to restoration of kind of intellectual power and credit to the leadership of America in the world. From a positive point of view, Obama could ask Iran for reestablishment of ties and would get global support for this action. Then it would depend on Iran to decide if it is ready to resume diplomatic ties with US or not. It seems that a less costly option for Iran in reestablishment of ties would be Barack Obama. From a negative point of view, Obama would tighten the economic sanctions against Iran in case Tehran fails to meet the demands of the West which could further hurt Tehran in the long term. Nonetheless, I am confident that Obama would never go for military option against Iran.

But if McCain is elected the military option could not be ruled out. Due to his record, McCain is an expert in military, international security and foreign policy affairs and could confidently benefit from the US power and force. He is also capable of drawing support from certain European countries for his actions. Unlike George Bush he is well aware of the international issues and his beliefs would authorize and enable him to exercise US power at global level. For the same reason I believe McCain policies would be more dangerous for Iran.

As far as the sanctions are in force, Iran has a chance to revise its policies but in case of military option it would get harder to change stances. Therefore, I believe Obama would be a more useful option for Iran.

In the meantime, the US administration would postpone any important decision-making vis-à-vis Tehran until the result of the 10^th presidential elections (2009) is known. Therefore, until before these two important events, namely the US presidential polls and Iranian presidential elections, most of the steps would be in line with paving the way for reestablishment of Iran-US relations.