Evaluating Iran's Foreign Policy: Differing Views on Ambiguity, Regional Engagement, and Public Diplomacy
On Sunday, the inaugural international congress of Diplomacy of Nations took place at Isfahan University. The congress, titled "Iran, an Enduring Civilization," was organized in collaboration with the University of Isfahan and the Union of Political Science Student Associations of Iran. Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Secretary of the Strategic Council of Foreign Relations, addressed the congress and emphasized the pivotal role of Iran's scientists, athletes, and artists in portraying an accurate image of the country to the world. Araghchi highlighted their ambassadorial role in showcasing Iran's true essence.
Discussing the essence of diplomacy, Araghchi, the Secretary of the Strategic Council of Foreign Relations, underscored that diplomacy is the art of managing international relations, with negotiation and dialogue serving as its crucial tools. Araghchi explained that dialogue empowers humans to resolve disputes and engage with others.
Araghchi, the former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, emphasized that diplomacy is grounded in dialogue and interaction, providing countries with an easy, safe, and low-risk means of establishing foreign relations. Highlighting the significance of power in negotiation, dialogue, and diplomacy, Araghchi stressed that entering into any dialogue requires a foundation of power. He categorized power into military, defensive, and soft or intelligent components, emphasizing the utilization of cultural, psychological, and artistic tools to persuade the other party.
Araghchi characterized diplomacy as the art of persuasion, where soft power plays a significant role. In addition to official diplomacy, he highlighted the importance of informal diplomacy, which targets ordinary people through channels like scientific, cultural, sports, and media communication. Araghchi emphasized that informal diplomacy sets the groundwork for official diplomacy, and neglecting this aspect would be detrimental during official diplomatic engagements.
Araghchi introduced the concept of public diplomacy and its impact on shaping a country's image. He stated that public diplomacy enables the portrayal and narration of a nation's identity, contributing to the formation of a favorable perception among other countries' citizens. Araghchi acknowledged that governments worldwide employ diplomacy as the easiest and most cost-effective means to achieve their goals. He reiterated that negotiation, dialogue, and diplomacy inherently rely on power, emphasizing the integration of hard military power and soft, intelligent power to persuade the other party.
Araghchi admitted that the Islamic Republic of Iran currently faces extensive public diplomacy attacks, including harsh sanctions, efforts to defame and isolate the country on the international stage. To overcome these challenges, Araghchi stressed the need for public diplomacy, encompassing scientific, artistic, sports, and cultural diplomacy. Araghchi emphasized that showcasing a proper image of Iran through public diplomacy is crucial, with scientists, athletes, and artists serving as ambassadors to convey this positive image to the world.
Nazarbeigi, an international analyst, interpreted Araghchi's remarks as a critique of the thirteenth government's foreign policy without explicit mention. Nazarbeigi highlighted two dimensions of concern expressed by Araghchi. First, the ongoing efforts to isolate Iran despite the subsiding tensions from the previous year. Second, Nazarbeigi believed that a lack of proper understanding of foreign policy, diplomacy, and dialogue within the current Ministry of Foreign Affairs team has led to missed negotiation opportunities and a complex negotiating environment.
Nazarbeigi referred to Araghchi's previous interviews to support his analysis, emphasizing Araghchi's warnings about the dangers of Iran's defamation, securitization, and delegitimization projects. Araghchi expressed concerns over the impact on foreign relations and reduced cooperation with other countries. Nazarbeigi emphasized the adverse effects of domestic conditions on foreign policy and called for proper policies, including media and public diplomacy, to mitigate negative perceptions.
Nazarbeigi further analyzed Araghchi's concerns and described the government's foreign policy behavior as "pendulum-like." He observed a contradictory approach where the government opposes negotiations while simultaneously engaging in discussions with European and American counterparts. This ambiguity in diplomatic behavior made it difficult to assess the thirteenth government's specific diplomatic stance.
Jalal Mirzaei, another commentator, echoed the analysis of ambiguous behavior in the president's government regarding negotiations. He attributed this ambiguity to the president's own uncertainty about his role in foreign policy, which reflected in the unclear behavior of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Mirzaei also pointed out the president's reluctance to support negotiations and his preference for regional relations as potential solutions to economic issues. Despite these challenges, Mirzaei acknowledged that canceling sanctions and revitalizing the JCPOA were crucial for economic diplomacy.
Fereydoun Attar, in contrast to Nazarbeigi's analysis, believed that the government, particularly under Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, has demonstrated a flexible foreign policy approach. Attar argued that the government's focus on strengthening Iran's regional role, evident in the restoration of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, extended to nuclear negotiations with European and American counterparts. Attar emphasized the positive outcomes of the government's dynamic regional diplomacy and highlighted the increased bargaining power achieved as a result.
Despite acknowledging the challenges posed by last year's Women, Life, Freedom protests, Attar disagreed with Nazarbeigi's assessment that Araghchi's statements indicated a critique of the president's foreign policy. Attar considered Araghchi's remarks as constructive criticism, emphasizing the importance of expert analysis and evaluations in the field of foreign policy. Attar underscored the need for receptive ears within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the government to expert opinions, ensuring a more enlightened and effective foreign policy approach.
Attar argued that the government, especially in recent months, has displayed a flexible and dynamic foreign policy approach. He pointed to the tripartite agreement in Beijing and the restoration of relations with Saudi Arabia as evidence of Iran's commitment to negotiation, dialogue, diplomacy, and a proactive regional role. Attar emphasized that the government's diplomatic achievements have positioned Iran favorably in the region and internationally.
While acknowledging the challenges posed by last year's civil unrest, Attar argued that Ebrahim Raisi’s government's policies were the result of trial and error, rather than a deliberate intent. He emphasized the value of constructive criticism, evaluation, and warnings from foreign policy experts, urging the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the government to attentively consider such input. Attar believed that a comprehensive and objective evaluation, devoid of political biases, is essential for shaping a successful foreign policy.
Examining the content of Araghchi's statements, Jalal Mirzaei shared his analysis with Shargh Daiy providing an alternative perspective. Mirzaei focused on the ambiguous behavior of the president's government in the realm of negotiations, which has resulted in a lack of clarity in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' approach. Mirzaei argued that when the head of government lacks a clear understanding of their role in foreign policy and negotiations, it naturally leads to an uncertain stance from the entire cabinet. Mirzaei further discussed the potential political costs associated with supporting negotiations and agreements, highlighting the impact on the performance of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Mirzaei offered a deeper analysis, stating that the foreign policy requirements during Ebrahim Raisi government's two-year tenure involve navigating through a combination of embargoes—bypassing, canceling, lifting, and neutralizing them. However, Mirzaei evaluated the government's approach as confused, grappling with challenges in the economic realm. He acknowledged that some within the government believe they can circumvent negotiations by solely focusing on regional relations, such as restoring ties with Saudi Arabia and strengthening interactions with Eastern powers like Russia and China. Nevertheless, Mirzaei acknowledged that the government privately recognizes the indispensability of revitalizing the JCPOA and lifting sanctions to achieve significant progress in economic diplomacy.
Contrary to the views expressed by Babak Nazarbeigi, Fereydoun Attar presented a completely different analysis during his conversation with "Shargh." Attar argued that Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi's government, especially in recent months, has embraced a flexible approach to negotiation, dialogue, diplomacy, and foreign policy in the region. Attar attributed the government's efforts to strengthen Iran's position and role in the region, particularly through de-escalation with countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Attar also noted the positive steps taken by Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt to improve relations with Iran, highlighting the increased bargaining power that Iran now possesses.
In conclusion, the various experts presented differing perspectives on Araghchi's statements and their implications for Ebrahim Raisi government's foreign policy. While Nazarbeigi expressed concerns and highlighted potential challenges, Attar and Mirzaei offered alternative analyses, emphasizing the government's flexibility and regional diplomatic achievements. Ultimately, the evaluation of the government's foreign policy rests on an objective assessment that considers the input and expertise of various analysts, promoting a more constructive and effective approach to Iran's international relations.