Jokes, Hopes, Concerns: Brexit for Iran
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Will Brexit entail changes in Iran’s interests? Few say no, but yea-sayers are not sure either. As Donya-ye Eghtesad, Iran’s largest economic daily in circulation, wraps it up, some commentators consider Brexit in the interest of Iran in its commercial ties as Iran will be able to engage in independent talks without the cumbersome EU regulations, while other observers believe that from a political and economic point of view Brexit will be unfavorable for Iran as Euro will decline and the UK will more readily pursue closer ties with the US.
A number of Iranian diplomats and officials have also expressed their views on Britain’s EU referendum results. Veteran diplomat Hamid Aboutalebi, who is now serving as the Deputy Chief of Staff of the President for Political Affairs, was one of the first Iranian officials to comment on Brexit. “A mega earthquake shook Europe and the UK left the EU; Stars in the flag of unity are falling in Europe. Economic developments in southern European countries, terrorism and the refugee crisis indicated that the unity was collapsing but the falling domino starts with Brexit. The European Union has long lost the trust of Europeans, the new trend will bring more power, security, and welfare for others. Britain’s EU exit is a “historical opportunity” for Iran; Iran should make best use of the fresh opportunity,” he wrotein a series of tweets.
In reaction to Aboutalebi’s tweets, Philippe Juvin, a member of the European Parliament, said Brexit is disadvantageous for Iran. “Considering Iran’s recent agreements and talks with Europe, the country needs negotiating sides that are stable. UK’s leaving of the EU destabilizes the situation, which is unfavorable for the continuation of talks between Iran and European countries,” the French diplomat told the Persian service of Euronews.
Alireza Miryousefi, a member of Iran’s negotiating team during the nuclear talks, also called the leave decision the 'exit of US’ Trojan horse from the union', in an article published on Khabar Online. After discussing the dynamics of Britain’s membership in the European Union and the motives behind the out vote, he writes: “Speaking of Iran, the UK has certainly played a significant role in EU’s policies toward the country in recent years. While we cannot expect an imminent change in these policies, Iran will probably have more bargaining power with the European Union.” Miryousefi further called for an active approach toward Brexit in Iran’s foreign policy, as any change can be a potential opportunity.
Nosratollah Tajik, another Iranian veteran diplomat, who was under house arrest in Britain for six years on charges of attempt to export US-made night-vision goggles to Iran, recommended that Tehran should explore the economic consequences of the vote. “With Britain’s exit, which will take one or two years to complete, an economic chaos may emerge, and we would better take note of commercial and economic interactions with Europe and its impact on Asia and world economy, in lieu of following a hardware approach, thinking that the anatomy of Europe will fall apart and it will bring an economic and political mess,” he was quoted as saying by Azad News Agency (ANA). He further said Brexit will reduce global economic growth and that single-product and developing countries should consider this more seriously, urging Iranian economy officials to take the necessary measures.
Deputy Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri was among those who welcomed victory of the Leave campaign. Jazayeri described the EU as a “pawn” in the hands of the US, saying the only way to maintain solidarity in the union is practical independence from the White House. He further stressed that Scotland, Ireland, and “others” have a right to independence from the UK.
A number of economy experts do not expect good days for Iran as Brexit could affect Iran’s revenues at least in short term, a piece in Principlist website Tabnak argued. A likely Brexit consequence could be a fall in oil prices in the following six months, a very crucial period for the Rouhani administration, the author maintained. According to Tabnak, other experts note Iran’s dilemma: on the one hand, apart from oil, Iran’s economy is neither large nor interdependent enough to be affected and on the other hand, the country could be more exposed to danger in the face of powerful economies because of its weak economic foundations. Given Iran’s comeback to global markets after the nuclear deal, mostly through EU channels, instability, economic and political crises can have large negative impacts on Iran, weakening European firms and banks’ tendency to make investments in Iran.
On the political repercussions of Brexit, Tabnak argues on behalf of unnamed analysts, Brexit could make EU more determined to resolve the Syrian crisis and return refugees to their own countries. This is where the union will need interaction and cooperation with Iran. However, a more pessimistic scenario is for the EU to lose hope of diplomatic solutions and resort to military intervention in collaboration with NATO.
Tehran’s official standpoint seems to be more realistic. Iran foreign ministry said in a statement that it respects the Britons’ decision to leave the EU and the decision will have no impact on the Islamic Republic’s approach towards the UK.
Many Iranians, at home or abroad, have rushed to comment on the Britain’s decision to leave EU. On Twitter, a user impersonating as a Qajar king commanded his secret royal agents to steal his ancestral diamond, Koh-i-Noor, from the Queen’s hat and return it home. “A man older than 65 throws a ball for his dog. The dog refuses to bring the ball and runs away. Heavy atmosphere in London, wide gaps,” quipped a BBC Persian correspondent. “Now it’s time for the EU, short of a player, to welcome us inside,” said another tweet. A user compared the referendum results with Telegram groups: “One of the main members left, now everyone will leave and Germany will remain as the admin”. Another user suggested there should be a second referendum to change the right hand drive. “I wish we could vote to leave the Middle East,” joked another user.