A Look at the Developments of the Nawaz Sharif Government

It seems that in 2015, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, was able to successfully bypass several serious challenges his government was faced with. Following the big political crises created by Tehreek-e-Insaf (the Pakistan Movement for Justice led by Imran Khan) and Awami Tehreek (the Pakistan People’s Movement led by Tahir-ul-Qadri) in 2014, the judicial commission to review the 2013 parliamentary elections was established. If the election commission had stated that there should be runoff elections, the prime minister would have been bound to hold the runoff elections. On the other hand, if Tehreek-e-Insaf had won the municipal elections, Imran Khan would have, once again, claimed that the Muslim League Party had gained victory in rigged parliamentary elections in 2013 and staged protests against Nawaz Sharif in different cities. But it did not happen because Sharif’s Muslim League Party won the municipal elections.

Furthermore, if at the time when Nawaz Sharif’s government was struggling against the government of Sindh led by the People’s Party and had tense relations with India and Afghanistan, he had simultaneously established bad relations with army generals, his government would have been faced with a serious crisis. The question is what the prospects of the upcoming developments for Nawaz Sharif’s government are. Signs indicate that if nothing special happens, Nawaz Sharif will have a relatively good year. Although he will be faced with many challenges, he will possibly bypass them with his political wisdom and patience. His relations with the army will experience certain ups and downs for which three reasons could be mentioned:

The first reason is that Pakistan’s army demands complete independence in its interactions with India, the US and Afghanistan. Army generals have asked Nawaz Sharif to remain within his own responsibilities. Until now, Sharif has proved that he has fulfilled his commitments in this regard. The permission given to Pervez Musharraf during the past few days to leave the country after a lengthy judicial process and approval of Sharif’s Muslim League government is an indication of this approach which was protested against by the opposition parties of the parliament. Opposition parties in the parliament considered Musharraf’s permission to leave the country as a sign of the army’s total control over the country. It should be mentioned that Senator Aitzaz Ahsan, one of the senior members of People’s Party who led lawyers’ movements against Musharraf, said in an interview with one of Pakistan’s news media outlets that the Muslim League government of Nawaz Sharif has been totally involved in his departure and this measure has challenged democracy in Pakistan. Arif Alvi, from the Tehreek-e-Insaf Party, also expressed in this regard that all political parties demanded the non-departure of Musharraf from the country and his trial as a traitor. One of the representatives of the People’s Party in the national assembly has also stated that as the government officials gave promises to end the electricity and energy crisis in the country and did not fulfill them, they agreed with Musharraf’s departure about whom had previously said that he should be tried as a lesson for others. He added that the government should be held accountable for this decision and said that the government claims that this order was given by the Supreme Court while in the Court’s order the government is responsible for making such decisions.

On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif will ask the army to give the government more time to establish friendly relations with India. Nawaz Sharif believes that without the establishment of peace between the two countries he cannot change the living conditions of the people. Sharif’s political approach towards India shows that he has used any opportunity to expand Pakistan’s relations with India and that the army generals were not pleased with these measures.

The second reason is that the army intends to act freely in its struggle against terrorism. Army generals believe that the National Action Plan (NAP) is the main obstacle in its struggle against terrorism. Among the objectives of the NAP were the struggle against radicalism, reforms in religious schools, supervision over financial transactions in the country, preventing money collection for the terrorist groups and reforms in tribal regions of Pakistan and the army believes that the government has failed in achieving these goals. The army intends to fight against Mafia groups in Karachi, which is the most important economic center of Pakistan within the framework of the fight against terrorism. Army generals believe that those politicians who use these groups for their political objectives must be tried. The People’s Party government strongly opposes this idea. Asif Ali Zardari is in self-exile and his close friend, Dr. Asim Hussain, is also in prison. If this issue is not resolved between the army and the People’s Party, Nawaz Sharif would be responsible for it and he will be damaged by it.

The third reason is that the army attempts to prepare the ground for the establishment of peace and stability in this country with the help of the US and the government of Afghanistan because insecurity in Afghanistan may spread into Pakistan but at the same time it does not want India to be involved in this matter. The army seeks to isolate India in Afghanistan. The US, Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the Taliban intend to cooperate to provide security and return stability in this country but no role is defined for India. The problem is that Washington and Kabul do not intend to ignore India in this regard. Indian officials might become angry which may further create tensions in the relations between the two countries. On the other hand, the situation of ISIS, the Taliban and al-Qaeda is getting stronger on a daily basis within Afghanistan’s territories and the government of Afghanistan is not capable of fighting against all these three fronts. It seems that without the weakening of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, security and stability will not return to this country. Therefore, Nawaz Sharif will have no role in these three significant areas and he would have to concentrate on other matters. Sharif believes that the most important challenge of his government is the crisis of energy shortage. Sharif has stated that this crisis will be resolved by 2017 but it must be noted that these projects are very expensive and the factories which use this electricity project for their production will have to increase the price of their goods. Thus, domestic products cannot compete with foreign products because these products will be cheaper. As a result, the unemployment rate will rise in Pakistan. Studies show that Nawaz Sharif must create 3 million jobs each year to eradicate unemployment which seems impossible. On the other hand, the government cannot increase its income through taxes. Thus, the government cannot take any measure to improve the political and economic situation of the country. What remains is the baseless slogans which the Muslim League government of Nawaz Sharif is bound to use to calm the people.