Viennese Steps to Solve Syrian Equation

- The crisis in Syria is three-dimensional, with complicated equations. Today there are internal players in Syria, one side of which is Assad and the Syrian government, another side the radical groups, including ISIS and the al-Nusra Front, and the third side the Kurdish groups which generally are not radicals but have used arms before, and the last side the western-oriented nationalist groups opposing Assad which have not had armed struggles and are ready to participate in the coalition government.

- The second dimension of this equation is the regional players which are involved in the Syrian crisis, including Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and the Zionist regime. The third dimension includes extra-regional players such as the US, Russia, China, Britain and France which are present in the crisis in Syria.

- Now it is difficult to design a plan which could provide the demands of the internal and regional and international players. This is an equation with three unknowns tied to each other.

- Steps have now been taken and they have started from the common points in order to resolve the issues of difference. One of the common points is that they have all accepted that Bashar Assad should remain in power at least for the transitional period and nobody speaks about his resignation anymore.

- The second point is that they have all accepted that the present governmental structure should be maintained; for if such a structure is destroyed, the experience of Libya might be repeated and the situation would be completely out of control and southern and northern Syria would be disintegrated and controlled by ISIS and the al-Nusra Front, Kurds and Assad supporters.

- Therefore, an agreement has been reached for the structure of the present government to be maintained, but the unarmed opposition should be able to participate in this government.

- Now the difference is over the form and shape of this government; whether it should be a transitional or national unity government. Russia, Iran and the Syrian government pursue a national unity government while western governments and the US intend to establish a transitional government which would last only 18 months.

- They are, thus, attempting to find a middle solution wherein a new constitution could be written which would determine the future political system of Syria. But there is an agreement over the secularist nature of the future government.

- The next point is that this constitution is supposed to be ratified by a referendum and then elections should be held; but elections cannot be held under security conditions. Therefore it is agreed that while the fight against ISIS and the al-Nusra Front continues, a ceasefire should be established between the Syrian government and the secular opposition groups. In other words, this ceasefire would cover only part of the groups and not all of them.

- Under such circumstances, one should wait and see how the next steps are taken so that elections could be held in a safe atmosphere and then the fate of the parliament and the president would be determined. Thus, during the transition period, Mr. Assad and his government will remain in power. The transitional government or the national unity government which is supposed to be formed within the next six months is the government of Assad plus the unarmed opposition groups.

- It seems that the new constitution will be written under the auspices of the United Nations and with the cooperation of neutral lawyers and those who have national reputation, and will be based on the internationally recognized patterns on which basis the future Syrian political structure will be determined.

- Certainly, without the establishment of security, elections will not be held. It should be pointed out that millions of Syrians are now displaced and hundreds of thousands of them have migrated to other countries. Hence, stability should first be provided so that the grounds would be prepared for their return and their participation in the elections.

-This plan and agreement has been designed and reached since weeks ago and not within a few days.

- The Paris attacks could have the effect that the US, France and Britain may now show more determination to fight against ISIS. They have now realized that the issue is more serious than they previously thought and similar incidents may happen in Britain, Germany or any other country.

- Another impact of these incidents would be expanded military operations by the western countries against ISIS.