Fall of Erdogan’s Charisma
If Ataturk was the founder of the Republic, Erdogan is the founder of the New Turkey. The first republic is indebted to Ataturk and the second republic, which is being established in Turkey, is indebted to Erdogan. Erdogan’s defeat today should not push his services to Turkey to the sidelines. There is no doubt that Erdogan is a great man but perhaps leaving the historical traditions of his country is not possible even for Erdogan. King Suleiman, to whom a big part of Ottoman glory was indebted, ordered the killing of his son and the changes in the behavior and thoughts of Erdogan proved again that the continuation of power will lead to corruption and dictatorship. In a decade, the same Erdogan who was the architect of fundamental reforms based on democracy in Turkey was transformed into an authoritarian Erdogan. Erdogan’s open and illegal involvement in the trend of elections has made him an obstacle in the path of democracy in Turkey and this is the main cause of his fall from the top, where less than a year ago, he had entered the Cankaya Palace.
Erdogan must learn a lesson. The field of politics is the field of learning lessons but leaders usually do not learn these lessons. The victory of the Kurds is the result of Erdogan’s political arrangement. The Kurds who celebrate their victory today and shake Erdogan’s power throne are well aware that Erdogan’s measures have led to their victory. But this is the lesson of politics, that distance from honesty and the people will bring down a charismatic person like Erdogan. But his fall should not be considered as the end of Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party inside and outside of Turkey. The field of politics is the field of ups and downs and parties and a man like Erdogan and his well-established party could powerfully reappear in the scene if they understand and study the reasons behind their fall and attempt to reconstruct themselves. The interactive approach of the Justice and Development Party regarding the other parties to form a coalition government and the rejection of this demand was an intelligent measure upon which the Justice and Development Party has maneuvered and the parties have rejected.
This measure might cause the people of Turkey to review their views and change the equation to the benefit of the Justice and Development Party again.
Erdogan’s role in the falling votes of the Justice and Development Party cannot be ignored and there is no doubt that he was the most important element behind the defeat of this party in the parliamentary elections. The charisma-oriented political society of Turkey has caused Erdogan to become the most important factor in the rise and fall of the Justice and Development Party. Yesterday, the culture of heroism and justice-seeking of the Turkish people led to the emergence of a charismatic person like Erdogan who led this party to its climax and now that the people have turned their backs on him, he is the cause of this party’s defeat that was in power for more than a decade.
Erdogan changed greatly during the past thirteen years. Continuation of power in his hands transformed him from a democratic leader to an authoritarian one. In internal politics, Erdogan has attempted to eliminate his rivals inside and outside of his party through undemocratic methods and not deal with the expanded corruption which existed in his party and his close circles. Knowing the Turks, he used heroic literature to present his justice-seeking and brave personality, but by eliminating his loyal friend, Abdullah Gul, from the circle of power, he showed that his actions were different from his slogans and remaining in power was more important for him. Building a palace which was similar to the palaces of the Ottoman Sultans damaged his reputation among the people. Naming the third bridge in Istanbul after Yavuz Selim proved to the Alawis that he supports the man who killed thousands of Alawis. In the recent parliamentary elections, instead of acting as a president and a neutral observer, Erdogan illegally got involved in this process which was unprecedented in support of the Justice and Development Party. In foreign policy, Erdogan has distanced himself from the objective of joining the EU and his relations with the neighboring countries have reached from zero tension to full tension. Erdogan based Turkey’s foreign policy on Ottomanism which was beyond the capacities of this country. The downfall of Morsi in Egypt dealt a heavy blow to the dreams of Erdogan in the region. The falling votes of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey could be the introduction to the repetition of Egypt’s dominos in Turkey; a development which concerned Erdogan after the downfall of Morsi. Of course there are structural differences in Turkey and Egypt. Although Erdogan’s support of ISIS in Iraq and Syria changed the equations to Iran’s disadvantage and Turkey’s benefit, it created a catastrophe from which an exit is very difficult and time-consuming.
In the recent elections, the people of Turkey punished a man who was elected and sent to the Cankaya Palace less than a year ago with more than fifty percent of the votes. If this punishment does not lead to the reform of Erdogan’s behavior and his party, he could be faced with the same fate as Uzal. With his successful economic and political record and making structural changes in all aspects of Turkey, Erdogan is a great man for the Turkish people and the number of his votes also shows that he has maintained this position for many people. Thus, a change in behavior and reviewing the actions and strategies could perhaps prepare the ground for his reemergence.
Turkey’s elections have numerous lessons for the people of the region. It was the manifestation of democracy and development, the multitude of voices, the wisdom and prudence of the people and the political leaders. One of the results of this election could be passing from charisma to a partisan system in Turkey’s future.
Meanwhile, a coalition and fragile government in Turkey could be to Iran’s benefit but not to Turkey’s benefit.
In the assessment of the political developments of countries especially the neighboring countries, one should refrain from extreme satisfaction or dissatisfaction because taking wrong positions may affect the future relations between both countries. Erdogan made a mistake and the people of Turkey did not eliminate but punished him and a reform in his behavior could once again bring him back to power. Even if this development does not happen, we must not act in a way to put pressure even on those people who have promised to establish better relations with Iran.
The last point is that considering the results of the votes, the establishment of a coalition government is inevitable and very difficult due to the differences between the parties. Due to the past experiences of Turkey, it seems that the only solution would be to hold early elections to exit from this political deadlock.