Impact of Republicans’ Victory on Nuclear Negotiations

As had been predicted, the Republicans gained the majority of seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Considering regional developments and Obama’s policies in the Middle East, what will the impacts of this victory be? Will there be a change in US policy?

The Democrats’ loss was predicted. I believe that the Democratic Party lost to Mr. Obama more than anything else. Obama is an uncharismatic leader who makes shaky political decisions. Six years ago, Obama came to power with a slogan of “Yes We Can”, but according to a French news agency, he must now choose another slogan. Obama has failed in different areas including the economy. He was not successful in the issues of immigration and health care either. It seems that there is public dissatisfaction about the programs of the Democratic Party. On the other hand, voter turnout was low to the extent that it is said that about 20% of the eligible voters participated in the mid-term elections.

Obama will be challenged by the Congress with regard to the issue of ISIS and the US’ approach towards Syria and Iraq. The differences in these areas are far deeper and more profound than on Iran’s nuclear issue. Although the Republicans usually take radical positions, they are more pragmatic than the Democrats in the international scene. For example, the issue of the missile shield was never implemented during the Bush presidency but the Democrats implemented it. The majority of the sanctions have been imposed by the Democrats. Republicans use the nuclear agreement as a tool to exert pressure on Obama.

Republicans have closer relations with the Zionist lobby, thus, they have created obstacles during the process of negotiations. Now that the Republicans have gained the majority in the Congress, reaching a comprehensive agreement would be difficult for the Democrats. Is there the possibility that the comprehensive agreement would not be reached by the deadline?

The Israelis and the Saudis have spent huge amounts for the victory of the Republicans in the mid-term elections. The approach of the Zionist regime was predictable but the Saudi approach is interesting. It is true that the relations between Obama and Israel, particularly Netanyahu, were damaged but now the Zionist regime is celebrating the Republicans’ victory. Both the Republicans and the Democrats know that they cannot fight against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Obama could advance his plans without Congress’ approval but problems may occur after the agreement is reached, meaning that the suspension or lifting of some sanctions need Congress’ approval which will be a challenge for Obama. Iran’s nuclear issue is not the only issue which might create a challenge for Obama and the Congress.

I believe that what could create a problem is Obama himself and not his party. Some European officials and even John Kerry have stated that they are proposing an idea to Iran wherein Iran could provide its peaceful nuclear activities. In fact, they are saying that Iran would be responsible if it does not accept this proposal.

I also believe that the election has reduced the confidence of the negotiating team because they have to sign an agreement which should be acceptable to the Republicans and Israel and some Arab states.

The new Congress has stated that it will lift sanctions if a good agreement is reached. Is it possible that Obama would suspend negotiations in order to gain the consensus of the Congress?

No. I do not believe that the US pursues the suspension of sanctions. Suspension would be a big failure for Obama. Agreements may be reached in some general concepts and details may be referred to in the future. In fact, if the result of negotiations is achieved in stages, negotiations would not be defeated but they will not have a 100% result either.

Considering the close relations between Israel and the Republicans, what will the future of the peace process be?

I believe that Netanyahu’s hands will be more open to continue his crimes and the Palestinians will be under more pressure. But it seems that no change would be made on the ground. Palestinians have found their way and tasted continuous victories. The Arab states and the public opinion of the world of Islam have realized that the Zionist regime is not undefeatable.

Will the Republicans force Obama to dispatch ground forces to fight ISIS?

I do not believe so. The public opinion of the US does not like troops to be dispatched overseas.

Oman was the venue for secret negotiations between Iran and the US. Now this round of negotiations is held in this country after the past negotiations which were held in other cities. What is Oman’s status in the process of negotiations?

Negotiations were held in different places; Turkey, Geneva, Vienna, Kazakhstan and even New York. Therefore, it can be held anywhere in the world. But I believe Oman is different. This country has good relations with Iran and its relations with Iran are different from other Persian Gulf littoral states. Thus, it can play a role but its role is limited. Sultan Qaboos and the ruling government of Oman are interested in resolving Iran’s nuclear dossier. Their view is different from that of the Arab states. It can intervene not as a mediator but as a host. Secret negotiations were held twice in Oman when Mr. Salehi was the Foreign Minister. At that time Oman’s role was more but now it is limited. If the differences are minor, then Oman can play a role but if the differences are about major and serious issues, then naturally neither Oman nor any other country could impact this issue.