Reasons for Growing Probability of Nuclear Comprehensive Agreement
-I am very optimistic that the comprehensive agreement will be reached before the November 24th deadline.
-The growing threat of ISIS is one of the reasons which raises the possibility of reaching an agreement. Iran and the P5+1 countries have common interests in the region and these interests necessitate joint cooperation in removing this threat.
-But since any cooperation and collaboration between Iran and the P5+1 countries depends on reaching a comprehensive nuclear agreement, the capacity of joint cooperation to fight ISIS is suspended. Therefore, the US and the European countries are interested in reaching this agreement so that they could use Iran’s cooperation in this regard.
-Barack Obama knows that in order for the democrats to gain a relative majority in the House of Representatives similarly to the Senate, he must have a winning card which could be the diplomatic resolution of one of the most important international crises during recent years.
-In the meeting between Netanyahu and Obama and contrary to Netanyahu’s demand, the US President stated that Iran, like other countries of the world, can have a peaceful nuclear program.
- Although this statement is very significant by itself, the more important point was that there was no negative reaction in the US’ domestic atmosphere with regard to his remarks. This shows that the opposition and even Israel’s lobby have surrendered to the White House’s decision to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran.
-The other point is that the world is basically frustrated with Iran’s nuclear issue. The Foreign Minister of Germany has explicitly made this statement. While leaving the negotiating table during the past round of negotiations, he said that the main problem is between Iran and the US and these two countries must first reach an agreement.
-These reasons indicate that both parties are bound to reach a comprehensive agreement before the deadline.
-The extension of the agreement would be meaningless and illogical because if any change was to happen in the positions of both parties, it would have happened during the past year.