Dictators Reach End of Game
The silent revolution has reached the Persian Gulf littoral states and the social taboos in these communities are repeatedly being broken. The heavy waves of globalization have greatly changed the traditional Arab roots of these countries. A middle class has also been formed in the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries which have led to a major generational gap in these societies. Following the popular uprisings, the trend of political reforms in Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia has been pursued with conservatism and the fear of the growing political and social demands and good governance has threatened the ideals of these monarchies.
Oil, the support of the West, and religion and tradition are the three key components of stability in these inherited regimes but there is a significant and internal component which threatens the power tools in these countries and that is the generational gap. During the past few decades, the collaboration among the political elites of the Arab societies has been maintained but the new political-social dialogue particularly among the new generations of these countries has created new security concerns for the rulers of the Persian Gulf states.
The globalization and the creation of the “virtual Arab civil society” is an uninvited guest which has caused numerous problems. Furthermore, the young generations in countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are hopeless about entering the power scene and demand a new political path of interactions. One of these paths is a phenomenon created by “Bassem Youssef”, the Egyptian satirist, who targets the ruling power in Egypt through his satires. This phenomenon has spread in Facebook and Twitter in the Persian Gulf states and has found followers.
The Arab societies attempt to change their positions and render part of the power, especially economic power, to civil society and the middle class, but this issue has, for example, failed in Kuwait. Although the political and social strategies in the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries have succeeded in countries like UAE and Qatar, Saudi Arabia is passing through difficult times. The reason is the resistance of religious institutions in Saudi Arabia against the spread of the civil and political liberties in this kingdom. In Saudi Arabia, the youth have pointed their attacks against the al-Saud family and in Kuwait, the youth movement demands a constitutional monarchy and an increase in power for the parliament. In Bahrain, the protesting movement asks the al-Khalifa family to give part of the power to its Shiite opponents.
The generational gap between the Arab societies of the Persian Gulf has caused the Islamic movements to react. The convergence among the movements of the Arab youths in the Persian Gulf has entered a new stage. For example, in the 2011 protests, the Bahraini and Omani youths attempted to hold virtual meetings to formulate their political demands; the Kuwaiti youths supported the elections and the Saudi youths opened pages in Facebook with regard to voluntary actions to help the flood-stricken people in Jeddah in 2009.
This new social wave in the Arab societies indicates a change in the concept of government in these countries. This stage could be called the stage of “the end of the sheikhs” or the ‘post-sheikh’ era in the Persian Gulf. This path is the end of the game of oil with political objectives in the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. Although political stability in these countries has been apparently maintained, the lower layers of the modern Arab cities show another trend. The new forms of political actions in these countries are impacted by the dominating new global phenomenon of governance; a phenomenon which the Persian Gulf Arab states have attempted to converge with. The UAE is an example of the combination of tradition and modernity but this modern UAE ignores the achievement of the demands of the Islamic movements and conservative parties and has securitized the activities of parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood.
Nonetheless, another new phenomenon is the formation of student movements in some of these countries. The political activities of the students in these countries have been under the microscope of the government and attempts were made to control the growth of these movements in the Saudi universities. The availability of social networks such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Whatsapp has caused the member countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council to form 85% of internet users in the entire Arab world. For example, Saudi Arabia holds the first place, in relation to its population, among the countries of the world in using Twitter. The creation of protest pages is a new political and sociological wave in these countries.
The under 25 year old youth form 54% of the populations of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The new culture of the youth of these societies has challenged the traditional institutions of the government and the tribal arrangements of these countries. In Kuwait, the young generation does not welcome those candidates in the elections who are affiliated with different tribes and in Oman the sheikhs have been mocked. In Oman the youths have made fun of the mediation of the heads of the tribes who were supported by the Interior Ministry following their protests. Even in the Shiite regions of eastern Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, the protesting Shiite youths attempt to change the traditional path of protest. They have distanced themselves from the official Shiite parties and welcomed new political actions. The Shiite youth of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia feel close to each other in this new political culture.
Therefore, the new social asset in these countries has caused the non-governmental elites to use these new forms of power. The awakening of the young generation in these countries to establish constitutional and democratic governments is growing on a daily basis and these new political actions have led to a new dialogue which is a serious challenge for the stability of these regimes. This might be the end of the traditional game of oil and political stability. Sheikhdom is an old dialogue which is about to collapse. Globalization has resulted in the awakening of the Arab youths in the traditional societies; an issue which needs to be deeply studied in these countries from the aspect of sociology and psychology.
In the end, although these countries might be able to resist against this new political action of the youths, they are bound to accept political reforms otherwise they would be confronted with profound political protests and revolutions. As many Arab and western analysts believe, the second wave of the Arab revolutions will rise on the shores of the Persian Gulf Arab states. Of course, these developments will not happen in the short run but it is possible.