Most effective secret channel , stays secret

By: Azadeh Eftekhari

Paul R. Pillar is an academic and 28-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), serving from 1977 to 2005. He is now a non-resident senior fellow at Georgetown University 's Center for Security Studies.  Regard US- Iran relations and nuclear issue , he Thinks Some sort of bilateral communication will be useful in getting to a final agreement. Pillar said  The most effective secret channel would be one that stays secret and that we do not know about it. Below is an interview with him about nuclear talks with Iran and Tehran-Washington relations.

After Vienna Talks between Iran and P5+1, negotiators say framework for nuke talks agreed upon. Now what? How both side , specially Iran and US, can sign a final deal? May US consider giving Iran more privilege and Iran too giving west more concessions?

What was agreed to in the opening round of talks in Vienna was basically an agenda and set of procedures for the two sides to follow in the many rounds of negotiations that still lie ahead.  Both sides will have to make concessions to reach a final deal.  This is apt to take many months, but the Joint Plan of Action has already laid out the outline for such a deal. 

Do you think Obama administration is botching the talks by raising the issue of ballistic missiles?

If the United States were to press this issue seriously, it would indeed be a mistake.  U.S. spokesmen have made only vague references to UN Security Council resolutions, and to the language in the Joint Plan of Action that references those resolutions.  The administration surely realizes that to make missiles a direct issue in its own right could spoil the negotiations.   

How about conservatives on both side, it seem both Obama and Rouhani are facing though challenges for selling the nuclear deal at home?

The leaders on both sides are indeed facing problems from conservative hardliners, who represent the greatest threat to completing a deal.

 Do you think additional sanctions really kill diplomacy and left Obama with war option? what happen in Iran and specially for Rouhani team in case of  approving more sanction? How much new sanctions cost for Obama?

Fortunately, the issue of new sanctions appears to have been set aside.  The legislation that was introduced in the U.S. Senate is not going anywhere for now.  The president's threat to veto the bill made clear he realizes the hazards that any new sanctions at this time would pose to the negotiations.  

It seem Iran and US perspective about final deal has huge differences, as US talks about dismantling and Iran insist on progressing in nuclear activities. Are these gaps bridgeable?

The gaps are bridgeable, and the Joint Plan of Action points to how they can be bridged.  The talk about "dismantling" is not helpful.  We may as well discard that term as it applies to this situation, because it only generates confusion.  It is well recognized, certainly by the Obama administration, that any achievable agreement will involve a continued peaceful Iranian nuclear program, including some enrichment of uranium.

Do you still believe in living with nuclear Iran?

If Iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon, deterrence would continue to exist and the situation could be lived with.  But it does not have to come to that.  An agreement that avoids an Iranian nuclear weapon is quite achievable, and is in the interests of both Iran and the United States. 

As a veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, do you think US intelligence information about Iran nuclear program or other issues in Iran are correct and enough? Given the fact that US has no official presence in Iran some doubt in accuracy if this information.

The best source of information about any foreign country's nuclear program is available to the whole world, and that is information collected by international inspectors.  That is why the provisions in the Joint Plan of Action providing for enhanced inspections by the IAEA are important.  

Robert Levinson was a CIA spy in Iran gathering information? Why US officials think he is steel in Iran?

I have no knowledge of that. 

Some reports claimed secret US -Iran Talks laid groundwork  for nuclear deal. Would these back channel contacts help round two negotiation toward final deal? some US Arab allies in region are not happy with this private contacts but Many believes the nuclear issue only resolves when US and Iran put aside their hostility.

Some sort of bilateral communication will be useful in getting to a final agreement.  The most effective secret channel would be one that stays secret and that we do not know about it. 

Decreasing tension or reconciliation, which of them is the most possible scenario in short term for Tehran and Washington ?Do you think current situation regard Iran is same as US -China in 1970s ?

There are indeed some parallels with US-China relations in the early 1970s.  Right now the focus with Iran is understandably on the nuclear issue.  Although there clearly has been some easing of overall tension since President Rouhani's election, whether relations improve further will depend on whether there is a successful conclusion to the nuclear talks. 

Al-monitor recently published a report about returning US diplomats to Iran. In your opinion its time to have US diplomats in Iran?

Probably as a matter of political reality this will have to wait until after a nuclear deal is signed.

In general how far can any US-Iran rapprochement go?

It can go as far as restoring a normal relationship.  The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran will not become close friends or allies, and there still will be differences on other issues to discuss and negotiate.  But a normal relationship would mean a better chance to cooperate on matters on which U.S. and Iranian interests happen to run parallel.  

Will progress on nuclear talks means more engagement from Iran?

Yes, it should.

You know the region completely . Do you think Iran nuclear deal and Rouhani and Zarif new approach toward Arab neighbors   may be the start of a new era in the region?

A more normal relationship between Iran and the West should also open new possibilities for Iran to have more normal relations within the region.  We already have seen some thawing in relations with the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, where Foreign Minister Zarif has had some successful visits. 

In your opinion, the way toward final deal, may foreshadow Tehran role in Syria peace talks?

A successful nuclear deal probably will lessen resistance in the United States regarding an Iranian role in negotiations on Syria.

And could this deal complicate other US foreign policies in the middle east? What would US- Saudis and US- Israel relation look like?

The current Israeli government will never endorse any agreement with Iran, but it will just have to accept any deal that is completed.  There already is much tension in U.S.-Israeli relations, and that would not change.  The Saudis will adjust their own policies toward Iran to take into account new realities, and that will likely include their own rapprochement with Tehran.

Source: Farhikhtegan Daily