Possibility of Power Transfer in Turkey

-Although it is possible that the Erdogan government would remain in power until the next elections, the chances of a Justice and Development Party victory in the upcoming Turkish parliamentary elections will be very low.

-The recent financial corruption scandal in Turkey is part of a scenario wherein the secular parties of Turkey and also the US intend to exaggerate this issue and exert pressure on the Justice and Development Party and eliminate it from the next election.

-On the other side, the US intends to support the secular parties of Turkey to eliminate the Justice and Development Party which has close relations with Iran.

-During recent years, the US attempted to spread the Turkish example of moderate Islam in the region by supporting the Justice and Development Party as it did in Egypt.

-But the US has reached the conclusion that the Justice and Development Party is compatible with Iran. On the other hand, the US feels the threat of the radical Islamists and Salafis in the region, particularly in Syria.

-Therefore, it attempts to change its approach to support the secular parties in the region. Thus, it supported the coup against Morsi in Egypt and now intends to support the military and secular parties in Turkey to prepare the ground for the downfall of the Justice and Development Party.

-I believe that this is the end of the Erdogan era and that of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and the secular parties will gain power in future elections.

-There is also a smaller possibility that the secular parties might instigate the people to hold protests and create unrests (like Egypt) to overthrow the ruling party, but the possibility of the transfer of power in Turkey through elections and ballot boxes is very high.

-What is certain is that the Justice and Development Party will lose power in the near future and the secular parties will rule in Turkey.

-The issue of creating reforms in the government is a temporary measure taken by Erdogan. Nevertheless, the situation now is such that these types of temporary measures cannot keep the government of Erdogan in power.

-Some individuals with dual Iranian-Turkish citizenship might have participated in this financial corruption. But the Islamic Republic of Iran has had no involvement in this matter and these accusations are only made by the US and the secular parties of Turkey against Erdogan to make it look as if the Justice and Development Party has ignored the rules and regulations of sanctions against Iran.