US Looks to Seize Strategic Moment

When Sadat came to power in Egypt following the unexpected death of Abdul Nasser, there were significant developments in Egyptian foreign relations. Sadat’s attempts to change its alliance with the Soviet Union to one with the US were faced with serious difficulties. The fact is that despite the concessions which were given by Sadat to the Zionist regime and his sudden visit to Israel, the Zionists were not willing to concede anything. Negotiations reached a deadlock many times and Sadat was totally hopeless about reaching a compromise with the Zionist regime. But at the same time, the Islamic Revolution in Iran gained victory and there was a change in the nature of the balance of power in the region so that Sadat was able to achieve relative success in the path that he had chosen. What happened was that with the exit of Iran from the collection of US-Israeli allies and its joining the anti-Israeli resistance front, the political geography of the region changed. The US was forced to make more efforts to attract Egypt in order to compensate for this damage which had occurred in the arrangement of the region. Thus, the Camp David agreement between Israel and Egypt was signed and Egypt joined the US’ allies. Since 1979, Egypt is the second biggest receiver of US aids. 1.4 billion out of the sum of 2.35 billion dollars worth of US aids are military aids which are given as credits to the Egyptian army. The trend of cooperation was such that gradually relations between the Egyptian army and the Pentagon became organic. The government of Egypt acted as one of the basic columns of US policy in the Middle East. It is obvious that the US considered the security of Israel as its first priority in its relations with Egypt, hence, strengthening the Egyptian army stopped short of becoming a threat against Israel.  Therefore, the policy of the Egyptian government was to strengthen the security and military system and limit the army’s possibilities. Of course, this policy was pursued in parallel with maintaining the situation of the army in the political management of the society. An important part of the government’s vast possibilities was in the hands of the army and the army was always the organ which gave legitimacy to the rulers. Following the huge popular uprisings in February 2011 and the downfall of Hosni Mubarak, the US was, in fact, confronted with two basic problems in the region; the domestic situation in Egypt and the situation in the region wherein a vacuum was created due to Egypt’s exit from the scene.

The US and Egypt’s Domestic Situation

Mubarak’s downfall was accompanied by the powerful emergence of the Islamic movement. The unexpected growth of the Salafi movements, particularly that part which was out of Saudi Arabia’s control, increased US concerns. Therefore, there was no other choice but to attempt to create an understanding between the army and the Muslim Brotherhood as a moderate movement with which an understanding could be reached; thus, the US encouraged the army to reach an understanding with the Muslim Brotherhood. But the fact was that the US could not be happy with giving even part of the power to the Muslim Brotherhood; because no matter how close the Islamists are to the US, they cannot be a suitable executor of US policies in all areas. The army could neither digest handing over even a small part of the power. Although the US assesses the disorder in Egypt within its general policy meaning weakening Israel’s neighbors, it is seriously concerned about the collapse of the situation in this country. The reason is that a collapse in Egypt would lead to the emergence of numerous radical movements which would probably be out of control, thus, creating more threats against Israel’s security. Therefore, the US is really faced with crisis and confusion in managing the domestic situation in Egypt. This confusion has led to the growing role of regional forces in this country. Thus, although it seems impossible that the Pentagon would be dissatisfied with the army’s decision to end Morsi’s government, this would not mean that all the decision-making centers in the US would agree with such a measure. Therefore, there seems to be a type of dualism in the US’ policies with regard to Egypt. The positions taken by John Kerry in his visit to Egypt are indicative of this point. On one hand, he speaks of the possibility of giving aids to Egypt and, on the other, he expresses his dissatisfaction with behavior toward the Muslim Brotherhood; although this visit by itself is considered as strengthening the present government. It seems that after evaluation, the US has reached the conclusion that eliminating the Muslim Brotherhood is not only impossible but would also be very costly for this country. What is perceived from the totality of the US’ positions and actions in Egypt is that they seek to find a middle solution so that, while maintaining the dominance of the army, the present crisis would end with more limited roles for the moderate Islamic movements in order to prevent the strengthening of the Salafi and radical movements.

The US and the Region in the Shadow of the Present Conditions

With the exit of Egypt from the regional scene, US management in the region was faced with serious problems. The fast growth of the Salafi movements which have now transformed Syria into their base can be a serious threat for the peace and stability of the region. Under these conditions, the US attempts to prevent the collapse of the situation in Egypt and, by creating a compromise inside this country, return even a limited role of this country to the region. Secondly, by resolving some regional issues including its relations with Iran, the US intends to reduce the heavy responsibility on Saudi Arabia’s shoulders.  

Nevertheless, Egypt will always be a priority in the US’ Middle East policies. The present US confusion in dealing with and managing the situation in Egypt will never prevent it from seizing the moment. Sometimes a long time must pass in waiting for a moment which could be seized and sometimes efforts must be made to create such an opportunity.

Is the present trend in Egypt on a path which could allow the US and Israel to remove strategic arms from this country in the not so distant future? One must wait a little to answer this question. Unfortunately the trend of developments in Egypt is not assessed as being in the direction of stability.