Russians Concerned about Tehran-Washington Relations

The possibility of a reduction of tension between Tehran and Washington has increased in the shadow of the Rohani administration and on the verge of his trip to the US. Meanwhile some analysts report that the Russians are disappointed about the possible closeness between Tehran and Washington. Do you agree with such an assessment?

The assumption that Russia is not happy with the closeness of Iran-US relations and does not consider this trend in line with its strategic interests is a correct assumption because of the competition which exists between the US and Russia in the international scene. But this does not mean that this assumption is correct under any condition, but rather that it has different interpretations under different circumstances. It seems that Iran is in a situation where it can play a significant role as a regional player and help to stabilize the region. From this aspect, the improvement of relations between Iran and the West will not be to Russia’s disadvantage for Iran would be able to help in stabilizing the conditions in the Middle East which is of high significance for Russia.

As you know, the issue of the establishment of radical groups and the spread of instability in the Middle East is intensifying. Therefore, the Russians do not like the tension between Iran and the US and the instability and insecurity to grow. They, on the other hand, intend to use the capacities of the Islamic Republic of Iran to create stability in the region. But, as I mentioned before, the type of strategic rivalry which exists between Russia and the US causes the Russians to be concerned about any movement which might change the strategic balance to the benefit of the West. Of course, this issue is related to conditions where countries become dependent and not Iran which has proven that even if it establishes good relations with the West, it will not act against the interests of Russia in the region. Perhaps this issue might reduce Russia’s opportunities with regard to Iran. But this does not mean that any kind of improvement in relations between Iran and the West would weaken the strategic balance in the region to Russia’s disadvantage and perhaps it would change the interests and the capacity of Russia as a player in the region. As with regard to China, the issue of its relations with the powerful countries does not worry the Russians; they rather attempt to arrange and change their type of game in this atmosphere where independent powers are also present in competition with the Russians.

Does Russia attempt to maintain Syria as its only base in the region due to its fear of losing Iran or moving away from it?

The issue of Syria is an issue which has created common positions and interests between Iran and Russia and the two countries have common interests in different matters. Thus, the improvement of relations between Iran and the West will further help these interests and would not be to Russia’s disadvantage. Iran can use its capacities to stabilize the conditions in Syria and through its presence in the Geneva-2 Conference, it can act as a country which pursues an objective which the western countries did not pursue and which is closer to Russia’s objective. Hence, the improvement of relations between Iran and the US with regard to the issue of Syria is more to Russia’s advantage and not to its disadvantage.

To what extent, in your opinion, would Russia help in the improvement of relations between Iran and the US, the reduction of sanctions and the advancement of agreements?

The issues which were mentioned do not necessarily mean that the Russians would move in this direction and take steps towards improving relations between Iran and the West. The reason is that the Russians do not like to see relations between Iran and the US become completely normal. They rather want to see a dialogue to be established between Iran and the West based on which the pressures which are now exerted on Russia on international issues would be divided. In other words, Iran will also enter a dialogue, one side of which is Iran and Russia and the other side the West. The Russians are willing to see relations between Iran and the West come out of the situation which could help the intensification of tensions. But this does not mean that very normal relations would be established between Iran and the West and Iran’s problems would completely be solved. Perhaps they seek a middle situation where, while Iran and the West still have some differences, they prevent the intensification of tensions and provide conditions where dialogue is established between the two sides and on regional issues, where the West is the most important obstacle in using this capacity, this obstacle is removed so that this capacity can be used.

Right now, how much does the US trust the statements made by Russia and does it believe what Russia says with regard to Iran’s nuclear issue?

The issue of trust does not mean anything right now; rather it is the powers and the level of their power which can guarantee an issue. Therefore, the issue is the extent of Russia’s power which forces the western countries to accept or not accept. In this case, one must pay attention to the type of the game which the Russians play and their power instead of their statements in this regard.

How would you assess Russia’s game with regard to the issue of Syria?

One of the most important obstacles in the path of the West which has prevented it from reaching its goals is Russia which has immediately vetoed the Security Council resolutions and has played a determining role in the issue of military and political support for Syria. All of these issues indicate that the Russians hold high capabilities with regard to the issue of Syria and are not willing to lose these capacities. The issue of Syria is a strategic issue for Russia and it seems that they intend to use all their capacities in this area. The West is also aware of Russia’s seriousness on this issue and the path which this issue has taken is the result of the power of the Russians.