How popular are Iran’s potential presidential candidates on Facebook?

Although Iran blocks access to Facebook, the social networking site has become a powerful force in the Iranian political life. Facebook first became popular in Iran’s political circles during the disputed 2009 presidential election. After the election, government censors blocked Facebook for a period. However, the social networking site is now accessible (through VPNs) again and enjoys considerable popularity among Iranians with Internet access.

Now that Iran’s June 2013 presidential election is nearly here, Iran Election Watch has looked into just how Facebook friendly are the potential presidential candidates?

The following piece examines the support on Facebook for each of the likely and announced presidential candidates. The data has been compiled through searching for “pages” either created since December 2012 or specifically dedicated to Iran’s June 2013 presidential election.

Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei: “Man of spring”

So far there are more than 10 Facebook pages created to support Mashaei’s candidacy with more than 1,800 “likes” in total. The main page with most followers is called “Campaign to Invite Engineer Mashaei to [run in] the Presidential Election.” This page which has more than 700 likes, and it was created in August, 2012.

The page mostly covers news about Rahim Mashaei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It criticizes their opponents such as the powerful Larijani brothers, one of whom is the head of parliament and the other who runs the judiciary.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has openly favored Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. In a speech on March 10, 2013 Ahmadinejad once again praised Mashaei, saying, “If I want to describe Mashaei in one word, I have to say engineer Mashaei is the man of spring, spring, and spring.”

It is widely believed by Ahmadinejad’s opponents that the word “spring” and the term “Viva Spring” is the slogan for government candidate’s campaign, especially Mashaei. Some political figures have warned Ahmadinejad not to use this term and avoid campaigning about his favored candidate before the legal campaign period.

The government neither denied nor took ownership of this claim, although there are several pages on Facebook in favor of Mashaei that are called “Viva Spring”.

In this regard, a post by the page administrator published on “Campaign to Invite Engineer Mashaei to [run in] the Presidential Election” notes the following:

“Tehran Municipality: Advertising the Spring is Forbidden!
In a strange move, Tehran municipality had ordered the term “Welcoming the Spring” to be removed from all Nowrooz (Persian New Year held on March 20) advertisements around the city of Tehran and replaced by another term.” The administrator later commented on the post, “God knows what they are afraid of.”

Another fan has written: “More political opponents bring more popularity [for Mashaei].”

Although “Campaign to Invite Engineer Mashaei to [run in] the Presidential Election” is created for Mashaei’s supporters, some of his opponents are also present and active on the page.

One person commented, “Mashaei even should not be approved [by Iran’s powerful Guardian Council, which vets candidates],” while another has written, “It is unfortunate if people once again are fooled by you. Your approach is more dangerous than damned Mousavi’s (reformist candidate during 2009 presidential election).”

The page is widely followed by Mashaei’s and Ahmadinejad’s supporters. In one post, a follower has written: “Being faithful to supporters is something that I have rarely seen among Iranian politicians, but I strongly believe that Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, unlike others, are loyal and faithful. I am proud of their behavior.”

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “A Doctor, Mayor and Pilot with Blue Eyes”

Political supporters of Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are among the most active in the world of social media. Besides dozens of pages and groups in favor of Ghalibaf dating back to 2008 with thousands of supporters (only one of his fan pages has nearly 18 thousand likes), there are more than 45 pages related to the presidential campaign. These campaign related pages altogether have at least 14,800 followers.

Ghalibaf’s most popular campaign page, “Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s Supporters” was created in December 2012 and has more than 7,000 followers.

Reviewing the different campaign pages, one can see that Ghalibaf’s supporters focus on three issues:

Mohammad Reza Aref: “A democratic Reformist”

Mohammad Reza Aref’s supporters have created at least seven campaign pages since December 2012, which are being followed by at least 150 people in total.
The most followed Facebook page with more than 55 fans is called “Supporting Dr. Mohammad Reza Aref.” The page was created on December 2012 and its administrator has reiterated that “If Mohammad Reza Khatami (former reformist president) joins the election race, this page will change its activity and will support Khatami.”

On January 7 the page administrator welcomed the “reformists’ coalition” and emphasized that the goal of the page is to support the reformist candidates like Aref and added “May the democrat reformists win the upcoming election.” One of Aref’s supporters has written on the page, “Aref must join the race for three reasons: He believes in democracy, He will probably be approved [by the Guardian Council] and he has a chance to win votes.”

Along with pages supporting Aref’s candidacy, there is a page on Facebook with more than 140 likes which asked Aref not to join the election campaign.
The page, “A Campaign to Ask Dr. Aref and Reformists to Avoid Running for the Election,” has a slogan, as it is cover page saying, “No to Sham Election”.

Gholam Hossein Elham: “For the sake of spring, join the race”

Gholam Hossein Elham has three fan pages on Facebook and more than 120 people have “liked” these pages.
The most popular one with 56 followers was created in January 2013 and is called “Public Movement to Invite Dr. Gholam Hossein Elham – Spring Fellows”.

It is widely believed by Ahmadinejad’s opponents that the word “spring” and the term “Viva Spring” is the slogan for government candidate’s campaign.
The page administrator has written in one post: “For the sake of spring, join the race.”

Ali Fallahian:

There is only one page dedicated to Fallahian under his name which was created on February 2013 and to-date it has only 5 followers.

Manouchehr Mottaki:

Mottaki’s supporters have created five pages in favor of his candidacy with more than 30 fans. His most visible page has 15 likes and is called “Group of Youth and Students Supporting Manouchehr Mottaki”.

Mostafa Pourmohammadi:

There is one page called “Mostafa Pourmoahammadi” so far which was created in February with more than 30 likes.
In one post published by the page administrator, there is a reference to a statement made by Pourmohammadi saying, “In the 2009 election we had some violations but no fraud.”

Hassan Rowhani:

Rowhani has one fan page so far with more than 15 likes. The page is called “Dr. Hassan Rowhani’s Fans” and was created in February 2013.
This page mentions that Hassan Rowhani insists on the formation of a coalition government.