Positive Pulses in Iran-US Relations
These days, the ground is prepared for talks between Iran and the US more than ever before. It can be interpreted from the existing atmosphere that both sides have made new decisions in their conclusions which are different from the past. The increasing pulses of negotiation between Iran and the US, emitted by both sides, cannot be spontaneous and done without evaluation. Furthermore, the signs of this approach can be seen in other developments such as the last round of nuclear negotiations in Almaty. Although the new approach in the administrations of both countries cannot be evaluated as a bilateral agreement, this positive atmosphere can certainly be used in time to reach an agreement.
The US’ willingness however to have direct talks with Iran has been expressed several times since Obama came to power, but in recent months the first pulses for direct talks between Iran and the US began in the Munich Security Conference with Joe Biden’s proposal. Following that, Iran’s Foreign Minister and Parliament Speaker diplomatically responded to this proposal. Considering the official level of these personalities, a positive conclusion can be made about their positions despite the differences in their statements. These individuals currently hold decision-making positions in the country and their remarks are not solely based on personal opinion, but they are rather a result of conclusions and assessments that have been made at the highest levels of the system. It must however be added that, in his comments, the Supreme Leader has not rejected the idea of negotiation with the US; he has only set conditions based on which the opposing side must change its approach. The diplomatic interpretation of such a statement is that the concept of talks with the US is not completely rejected and it is not Iran’s red line, and it is Washington’s approach which will determine these lines. Maybe this is the reason why, despite the Leader’s remarks, Salehi once again spoke of this issue but in other words.
It must be said that the US has also received this message to a certain extent. It is assumed that we can see the outcome of such a positive atmosphere and such an approach in the meeting in Almaty. Iran’s nuclear dossier and negotiations with the P5+1 have been among Iran’s most important international and political issues during the past decade and there is certainly no doubt that the US is the strongest player our country faces in this arena. For instance, on the issue of suspending sanctions, an issue which is among Iran’s most important demands, the US can play the biggest role. During the Almaty talks, two positive signals were received from the US. The first point was the US’ official request for direct dialogue with Iran on the sidelines of these talks, a request which had been made by Washington officials prior to this round of negotiations. Although there is no exact information about Iran’s response to this request for dialogue, we can assess this request as a positive sign when we place it alongside the clear change in nuclear talks.
The second positive sign was seen in the Almaty talks and the different atmosphere of this round of talks compared to previous negotiations. Almost all sides of the negotiations returned home with a sense of hope and a positive outlook and the dates of the experts meeting and the meeting of representatives from both sides were set for the first time. If we consider progress in Iran-P5+1 talks to be an influential factor in Iran-US relations, the outcome of this meeting demonstrates that, to a great extent, the atmosphere between the two countries has become calmer compared to the past.
Most important of all, however, are the economic signs of these positive pulses. Alongside politics and politicians, the economy and the market are realities which show the quickest and most logical reactions to the equations. The decline in the value of the dollar and gold in the Iranian market did not take place without a reason and it is not solely due to economic factors. It can be said with certainty that the market has also felt the positive atmosphere that has been created; an atmosphere which must be managed with wisdom so that we can pass through this current phase of tension and chaos, because it is the continuation of talks that can lead us towards a serious agreement, and what is inevitable for the success of talks is to be able to move past the bleak atmosphere and the wall of mistrust which has spread its shadow over Tehran-Washington relations over the past thirty something years.