Egyptian Referendum’s Message for Morsi

What is your assessment of Egypt's constitutional referendum following the announcement of the results?

Based on the reports, only 33% of those who were eligible to vote participated in this referendum and 63.8% of them voted positively to the constitution. This number of participants is low for a constitution and if those who held this referendum had considered this matter, they should have provided more opportunities so that consensus would be created among different political groups with regard to the constitution. But apparently the government of Mr. Morsi acted hastily in writing the constitution and immediately holding the referendum. 

What was the reaction of the opposition to this referendum?

The opposition held demonstrations in Tahrir Square to protest against Mr. Morsi's constitutional draft. They first said that they would not participate in the referendum, but when they felt that the government was insisting on holding this referendum, they changed their position and announced their participation with their negative votes. This change of position had its impacts and some of the protesters did not participate in the referendum. That is why the number of positive votes was higher.

What was the composition of the votes?

While in a city like Cairo the majority voted negatively to the referendum, in remote areas, like Upper Egypt where there is a high illiteracy rate, the referendum received the highest number of votes. This shows that the majority of the people who voted for the constitution could basically not read it. Their motivation for agreeing with this constitution was solely religious and not based on an expert analysis.

What are the views of the opposition groups with regard to the results of the referendum? 

What is certain is that the government of Mr. Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Salafis of Egypt insist that this constitution is adopted and legitimate and must be the basis of affairs. So, elections should then be held for new members of parliament and institutions should be established and move towards normalization of the situation in the country. The opposition does not agree with this path. They have emphasized that they will continue their popular movement and peaceful demonstrations to eradicate the constitution. They believe that many rules have been violated in this referendum, including holding it on two days with one week apart, whereas it should have been done in one day throughout all of Egypt. They also reiterate that the judiciary did not supervise this referendum. 

How do you predict the political approach of the Muslim Brotherhood will be after the adoption of the constitution?

The future approach of the Muslim Brotherhood depends on several elements, some of which are related to Egypt’s domestic issues and some to the regional situation and international powers. There is no doubt that the Muslim Brotherhood, as an important movement, has a popular base. In addition, the Muslim Brotherhood is the most important organized group among the political factions which are present in the cities and villages. But there is one point and that is that power in Egypt is still in the hands of secret forces and power centers. It means that the security apparatus which had gained power with Anwar Sadat's presidency and later during Hosni Mubarak's tenure is still powerful. The revolution in Egypt has not been able to eliminate or even weaken this system.

What is the opposition's perspective of their future activities and what will their strategy be?

The position taken by these groups indicates that their struggle to undo the constitution will continue. They believe that numerous cases of violations have happened which questions the credibility of this referendum. In my opinion, their decision is to continue their opposition to the constitution. It appears that their opposition is to the constitution, but in fact they are unsatisfied with the situation which was created after the revolution in Egypt. They believe that national unity must be created in the country and no group must take hold of power and consider itself the majority.

Of course, there are different opposition groups. Perhaps the majority are the youth who gathered in Tahrir Square and started the revolution. But numerous academics, intellectuals, and members of the middle-class are also among the opposition. Naturally, some of the officials of the former regime have also entered these groups and anonymously enflame the fire of differences within Egyptian society. 

It does not seem that foreign forces agree with each other on the future of Egypt. Perhaps some of them prefer the present disorder to continue. The economic situation is also very dire. As you know, a huge amount of Egypt's income is gained through tourism, which, at the present time, has stopped due to social insecurity and other social problems. Foreign investments have also decreased and Egypt is moving towards receiving loans from foreign countries. 

Nevertheless, Egypt's conditions are very fragile and dangerous. We must wait and see what impacts the developments will have on the future of Egypt.