Afghanistan, a Huge Problem for Obama

The re-election of Barack Obama as the US President can determine, to some extent, the prospect of this country's relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan considering its previous policies. 

The most important measure taken by Obama regarding Afghanistan during his first presidential term was changing US strategy with regard to this country from "fighting against rebellion" to "fighting against terrorism" and "considering Pakistan as part of the crisis". His other measures have been, in fact, affected by this strategy. 

In evaluating US priorities with regard to Afghanistan in the second term, the following points can be pointed out: 

* Emphasis on a complete hand-over of security responsibilities to the government of Afghanistan and departure of a part of the US military and fighting forces of NATO members from this country.

* Signing a security pact between the US and Afghanistan which will determine security relations between the two sides during the future decades. Within the framework of this pact, the issue of establishing US military bases in Afghanistan and continuation of the presence of some forces will be implemented. 

* Reiterating the need to hold presidential elections in Afghanistan in 2014, especially considering reports of the inclination of some factions in the Afghan government towards providing the grounds for the return of traditional solutions like a loya jirga and canceling the election. This point of view has even been proposed in the UN office in this country (UNAMA).

* And finally, the issue of entering the rebellious forces and particularly, the Taliban, into the process of negotiations and government-building in Afghanistan.

In this path, the US is faced with three distinctive challenges:

The first challenge is the inefficiency of the government in Afghanistan, particularly in domestic policies. This is, in fact, the most important challenge in Afghanistan which has led to more problems and disorderliness. In presenting a powerful and healthy political and economic image, which could gain the trust of the people and the civil society and political factions, the government of Afghanistan has been impotent. It not only could not create proper balance in the multi-ethnic society of Afghanistan, but it also failed to define clear boundaries for national interests against the presence of foreign forces. Continuation of this situation means continuation of crisis in this country. The weakness of the government of Afghanistan in this issue has caused major mistakes made by the US in this country to be less paid attention to under the shadow of this inefficiency.

The second challenge is the role of Pakistan in Afghanistan. At least in the opinion of the powerful factions in Pakistan's army, the issue of Afghanistan is one of the most vital foreign policy issues of this country which, like the issue of India, has a completely security-based nature. Failure in Afghanistan can cause this country to face serious crises both inside Pakistan and also in confronting India. In the mind of Pakistan's army, it is clear that although it is considered as a non-NATO strategic ally of the US, the nature of the US’ view of this country, following the end of the Cold War, is not based on a stable foundation and periodical necessities have formed this relation. The US choice in South Asia (even with regard to the issue of Afghanistan) is India. This matter, especially when considering the predictable horizon of the role and situation of China within future decades in Asia and the role which India can play in preventing China's supremacy through creating balance, is undeniable. 

* Continuation of the defined policy of pressure, supporting the action of civil governments, continuation of drone attacks against tribal regions aimed at exerting pressure on terrorist and radical groups, and attempts to contain the ambitions of the army and placing it within the framework of organizational tasks aimed at preventing their interference in political affairs can, perhaps, be evaluated as major criteria of US policy with regard to Pakistan in the new presidential term. The army officials of Pakistan, while being aware of this issue, besides attempting to prevent the establishment of a direct agreement between the Taliban and the US and maintaining the present policy with regard to the rebel  Afghan groups, and welcoming a new beginning in their relations with Russia, established after the Russian Foreign Minister's visit to Islamabad and the simultaneous trip of Kiani, Pakistan's Head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Moscow and safeguarding existing relations with China, attempt to define new circumstances in regional interactions. Of course, one aspect of these interactions can be the arrangement of more desired relations, in Pakistan's view, with the US, even in a periodical form and as a project, because for Pakistan, as an aid-receiving country, maintaining relations with the US, at least under the existing circumstances, is a necessity and not a choice.

The serious disagreements of Russia, China, Pakistan, and Iran with the establishment of US military bases in Afghanistan is the third challenge facing the new US administration with regard to Afghanistan. This issue clearly shows the extra-Afghanistan objectives of the US and has direct impacts on the countries of the region. During recent months, Putin has presented a totally different image of Russia in internal and external dimensions and he attempts to redefine Russia's role as a world power in international interactions. 

With regard to the issue of Afghanistan and the US, the Russians have pursued the policy of "participation and competition" and openly support the necessity of Afghanistan's neutrality in foreign policy. On the other hand, the visit of China's Minister of Domestic Security and member of the ruling political committee, who is the highest ranking Chinese official who has visited Afghanistan during the past decades, to Afghanistan can be considered as a sign of China's inclination towards bypassing the traditional approach of relations with Kabul, which was based on economic elements, and to enter the security element in this relation. The direction of this approach is also both based on the situation of Afghanistan after 2014 and on the more expanded role which China has recently shown interest in playing.

Considering the above-mentioned points, it seems that the Obama administration will be faced with difficulties in its new term and in drawing its policies, particularly with regard to Afghanistan and Pakistan. On this basis, bypassing the present stage and presenting a definition of victory without reaching an agreement with the other effective parties and changing some policies would seem impossible.