US Should Not Have Ignored Khatami Message After September 11th

I would like to know your opinion about the differences between the army and the civil government in Pakistan. Can it be said that the era of military officers returning to power is over or could they take power again in Pakistan?

The era of military coups is not over. The army has always controlled foreign policy even during the civilian rule. As we see today, for example, it is the army that is making all the decisions in Afghanistan, the relationship with the United States, the improvement of the relationship with India has only come about because of the army’s agreement. And foreign policy has always been critical. Pakistan is a dependent country, in terms of loans and aid and economic development and it needs a healthy civilian relationship. It needs a relationship which should be run by civilians towards the interests of civilians. Instead, foreign policy is run by the military towards the interests of the military.

You referred to foreign policy. Do you believe that foreign powers, especially the US, have a role in the creation of such a situation in Pakistan? What is the role of some foreign powers, especially the US, in this situation?

Pakistan is a very strategically located country. It is on the mouth of the Gulf. It borders central Asia. It borders China. If Pakistan was at peace with its neighbors, it could play an enormous role in facilitating trade and pipelines between all these countries. Now, obviously all the neighboring countries have a great deal at stake in the stability of Pakistan. At the same time as Pakistan having this geo-strategic value, it has also fostered Islamic extremism, the army has helped these Islamic extremists and used them as an arm of foreign policy. So, that is the cause of enormous concern to the neighbors, for example, India, where Pakistan has been training the Kashmiri militants to fight in Kashmir. And likewise, the central Asian militants, the Afghan Taliban, the Chinese Uighur militants, have all been living and working and training and fighting in Pakistan; not all of them with the permission of the government, but this is of enormous concern to the neighbors. And I think the third issue is the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear power and that there is no country in the world that can afford to ignore a nuclear power.

What is your assessment of the Russian Foreign Minister’s recent visit to Islamabad? Is there going to be a change in Pakistan’s policy in order to create a balance or are these trips aimed at getting more concessions from the West?

Well, I think the first thing we should be addressing is whether there is going to be a change in Russia’s policy, because Russia has always been very hostile to Pakistan. I think Russia is very worried about the future of Afghanistan and the future of Pakistan. It feels very left out because it has not been part of the NATO alliance in Afghanistan. It has been isolated both by the Bush Administration and by the Obama administration as far as its role in South Asia is concerned, so I think Russia needs to wake up because obviously there are a lot of extremists from the former Soviet Union, from Russia, from the Caucuses, from central Asia, fighting in Afghanistan and then the rest of these groups start entering central Asian countries once the Americans leave. So I think Russia is very worried about that as well.

What do you think about Iran’s role in this region, especially after 2014? How would you evaluate Iran’s role after 2014? What kind of cooperation do you consider between Iran and Pakistan and especially Afghanistan?

Well, Iran and Pakistan have always been rivals in Afghanistan. They have been rivals for influence. As you know, Pakistan was backing the Taliban in the 90s; Iran was backing the Northern Alliance. So there has always been a battle for influence between the two countries. There is still no political unity between Iran and Pakistan on the future of Afghanistan. There has been no initiative taken to basically come to some kind of understanding and I think the big fear of many Afghans is that there will be continuing rivalry between Iran and Pakistan; their intelligence agencies and their proxy forces inside Afghanistan will be competing with each other. I think it is unfortunate that the Americans refuse to have anything to do with Iran after 9/11, because I think Iran and President Khatami were wanting to play a positive role after 9/11. And perhaps we could have had a better dialogue. And remember that Iran took part in the Bonn Agreement, and Iran was instrumental in persuading the northern alliance to come to an agreement with the Pashtuns and all of this has not helped Iran. I think also, in recent years, especially with President Ahmadinejad, Iran has had very poor diplomacy. Obviously Iran has been surrounded by American forces in many neighboring countries such as Iraq, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan. So, I think that is all the more reason for Iran to have tried to improve its bilateral relations with its neighboring countries and accept the fact that they have obligations also. The fact that Afghanistan has American forces, there is nothing Afghanistan can do about those American forces. It is not strong enough. So Iran should understand these dilemmas and the problems that these neighboring countries face, and be more flexible in its foreign policy.

What do you think about the future of this battle between Iran and the US?

Obviously, the challenge is enormous. The West is determined to stop Iran’s nuclear energy program and Iran is determined to go ahead with it. And I hope that there can be some sort of compromise on this issue. We should also understand that the Arab states are also very nervous and very worried about Iranian nuclear power, so is Pakistan, so is India. It is not just that the US is concerned about Iran becoming a nuclear power, but a lot of the neighboring countries are also. I hope there can be some commitment with which Iran can pursue the program for nuclear energy without necessarily making a weapon.

How do you assess the chances of victory for the Peoples Party in the next elections in Pakistan?

It is difficult to say. But at the moment I think the Peoples Party is very unpopular, because of the economic crisis, the energy and electricity crisis, the breakdown of relations with the US, the lack of trade and business, the Taliban problem, the insurgency in Balochistan and Karachi and in the northwest. So, it is very difficult to say whether the Peoples Party will win or not. I think what we can say is that there will be a coalition government next time also. No party is likely to win the majority in the election.

On the issue of separatist tendencies, or, in other words, hope for the achievement of a form of autonomy in Balochistan, has gathered more interest in some political groups inside the country. How do you see this issue, considering efforts made by certain members of the US Congress in this regard? Could this be a reason for concern regarding the future of movements by Baloch groups in the province?

I think the interference by the US Congress has been very dangerous and counter-productive. Unfortunately, the situation in Balochistan has been militarized by the army. A long time ago, Musharraf went to war with the Baloch and used intelligent agencies to kill large numbers of Baloch nationalists and dissidents and the war has become militarized and the military has made no efforts and has not allowed the civilian government to seek a political solution. And the more this goes on, obviously the more foreign powers are going to intervene. I think all the neighboring countries are very interested in what happens in Balochistan; Iran, Afghanistan, the UAE, the Gulf states, obviously the US, even Russia. So, Pakistan and the army should understand that the more they continue this conflict, without a political settlement, and I think a political settlement is quite easy to do. As long as there is no political settlement, we will increasingly unfortunately involve outside powers in Balochistan. So we need to quickly have a political settlement with the Baloch. If we don’t, we can’t stop India and Iran and Afghanistan and other neighboring countries getting involved.

The existence of relations between parts of Pakistan’s security and military forces with the Taliban and radical groups, such as the Haqqani network, is an important issue which has been strengthened following Bin Laden’s killing in Abbottabad. What does the army ask of Afghanistan? What are the issues of concern for the army which prevent the expansion of cooperation?

I think this is a very good question, because the army has never really spelt out to the people of Pakistan or to the Afghans or to the Americans exactly what it wants in Afghanistan. And I think it would make life much easier if we knew what the red lines were for the military, and what kind of policies the military would want to pursue to have continued interest in Afghanistan. Now I don’t think the army wants the return of the Taliban government. I think the army would have some red lines regarding the role of India in Afghanistan and the recognition of the Durand Line, the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan by the Afghan government. It is not a recognition, certainly a de facto one, but some kind of informal recognition of the border. What other role it would like to have in the domestic affairs of Afghanistan is not spelt out, and I think this has been one of the problems. And I think obviously this problem is becoming more pronounced, now that the army is facing the Pakistani Taliban in Pakistan and continues to give refuge to the Afghan Taliban.

Does the army agree with the establishment of US military bases in Afghanistan after 2014 and does it not consider this issue as an obstacle in controlling its regional approach?

You are very right. I don’t think the army wants US bases in Afghanistan especially if they are going to continue drone attacks on Pakistani soil and this is a very big issue of difference between the Americans and the Pakistanis.

Ahmed Rashid has been chosen by Foreign Policy magazine as one of its 100 global thinkers. He has won several international awards and his works have been translated into tens of different languages worldwide. Mr. Rashid currently resides in Lahore.