Temporary Unity of Al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood in Syria
The presence of the al-Qaeda organization in the Middle East and their activities are related to the post-September 11 era. Although this organization had recruited members prior to this incident, the activities of this group were concentrated in Afghanistan. Following the US and international forces' attack against Afghanistan and the collapse of the Taliban regime, al-Qaeda attempted to increase its activities in the Middle East. This issue became more prominent after the attack of the US and its allies against Iraq. In fact, ethnic conflicts in Iraq, following the fall of Saddam's Baath regime, prepared an appropriate ground for this group's activities. Therefore, in the post-Saddam era, we saw that al-Qaeda, alongside the Baathists, formed a militia for its operations, especially in the Sunni areas of Iraq. Sometimes, these activities even enjoyed popular support and were able to be relatively organized. But after the Sunni population of Iraq understood that al-Qaeda’s ruling style was based on violence and force, they distanced themselves from this group and fought against it within the framework of awakening councils. Thus, from 2008 to 2009, the activities and influence of al-Qaeda in Iraq were reduced.
After that, with popular movements in the Arab world, and considering the fact that these movements were based on people's participation in the political scene and were peaceful, the influence of al-Qaeda in the Middle East dropped. At the same time, Bin Laden was killed by the US; at that time, due to popular uprisings in the Middle East, there was no serious reaction to Bin Laden's killing in the region. There is the analysis that if Bin Laden had been killed prior to the new wave of developments in the Middle East, there would have been more reactions to this incident in the region.
Therefore, it can be said that the first wave of popular developments in Arab countries led to the weakening of al-Qaeda; for these movements were peaceful and did not approve of group's violent approach. But, since the first wave of people's movements lost its momentum and changed from peaceful to violent activities, and crisis was formed in Syria, al-Qaeda has attempted to reconstruct itself, and now its presence, influence, and activity in the region has increased. The reason is that whenever there is crisis and military confrontation, al-Qaeda uses it for its own reconstruction.
In Syria, several thousands of al-Qaeda forces are present and fight against the government of Bashar Assad. They use the suitable atmosphere of conflict and crisis in Syria to increase the number of their forces. Furthermore, this group's activities in Iraq have also severely expanded and their operations and planting of bombs have grown. This is caused by the growing power of al-Qaeda in the region, following the Syrian crisis. Considering the trend of al-Qaeda’s growing power in the region, news were published in Jordan during the past few days that the intelligence organizations of this country have discovered a network of al-Qaeda affiliates who intended to plant bombs in government centers, diplomatic institutes, especially the US embassy. This group's activities in Yemen must also be mentioned, where it has attempted to revive and reconstruct its forces. Thus, it can generally be said that at the present time, al-Qaeda is reconstructing itself and increasing its power in order to play a greater role in the region. Basically, the more the crisis in the region expands and violence spreads, more space will be created for al-Qaeda. On the other hand, if the present crisis is reduced, the activities of this group will also be reduced and moderate groups will have more of a chance.
Right now, the crisis in Syria has turned into the common point of these two thoughts. It means that on one hand, the Islamic fundamentalist groups backed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and, on the other hand, the moderate forces supported by Turkey and Egypt, are fighting against the government of Bashar Assad. But, strategically in the long run, there will be differences between the moderate Islamic forces, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Islamic fundamentalist groups, especially al-Qaeda, and this might lead to conflicts between them. For example, at the present time, al-Qaeda does not recognize the Egyptian government, which is in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood, as an Islamic government and calls on the government of Egypt to close its embassy in Israel. Therefore, this strategic difference between these two forces exists and, immediately after the crisis in Syria and other countries of the region cools down, conflicts between these two groups will increase.