Will Syria Be Disintegrated

-I believe that there are still some elements which inhibit the danger of disintegration and or even collapse of the Syrian regime in the near future. But there is the possibility of instability, civil war, and continuation of guerrilla wars, for which no end can be imagined soon.

-Let's assume that the Kurds want to become independent. On this issue,  they will be prevented by Turkey, meaning that Turkey, despite being in the same front with the West which intends to topple the Syrian regime and substitute it with another system that is more aligned with their interests, disagrees with the independence and even autonomy of the Kurds inside Syria.

-This is because this pattern will be followed in Iraq as well, and hence, sooner or later, the same thing will happen in Turkey. Therefore, one of the elements which will prevent any kind of disintegration in Syria is Turkey.

-In Syria, there is no more racial minority, unless we attend to the issue of Sunnis and Shiites.

-It is a fact that a major part of the Alawis live in the capital and the suburbs of Damascus, but at the same time they are not easily recognizable. It is not similar to the time when India reached independence and several million people migrated from one place to another and formed Pakistan.

-The question is where the Alawis will go. Do they want to go to Lebanon or control Damascus? Therefore, from a religious aspect and in a short period of time, the disintegration of Syria seems impossible.

-Therefore, the possibility of Syria's disintegration is very dim, but chaos and civil and guerrilla wars will continue.

-I believe that, considering the differences that exist among the opposition and the fact that the Syrian army has proved that it has not yet lost its structure and that the policies of the countries which support the opposition are different, civil war is unimaginable. 

-But Bashar Assad can find other solutions. He can slowly separate himself from the system and talk about resignation and compromise with the opposition with a council consisting of the military and others.

-Based on the existing documents, the US view of the Middle East was once that formation of smaller governments is to their interest and they can deal with them more easily. 

-But now, such arguments do not seem possible. At the present time, they believe that they should deal with the nation-states which have been formed after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire with defined boundaries. 

-Therefore, the Americans are involved with the entirety of the Assad regime and do not seek to capture part of this country's territories and form a liberating army.

-I believe that it is neither in the interest of the US nor Israel to be confronted with different nation-states with an uncertain future. 

-At certain times, it is possible that a country's neighbors might seek the independence of parts of this country to exercise their control over them or make alliances with them. 

-It does not seem that neighboring countries look to control any part of Syria other than Kurdistan. One does not expect that Jordan seek to have an alliance in Syria's borders. Lebanon also has its own problems. The only country left is Israel.

-But Israel will, sooner or later, have territorial disputes with any regime which would be formed in Syria. Therefore, no desire can be imagined for the disintegration of Syria, whether beyond borders by the US, Israel, or Turkey, or inside Syria itself.