The Friend of My Enemy...
By: Amir Mousavi
Since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the Republic of Azerbaijan has been always a serious concern for Iran due to its intimate relations with Israel and the US. Besides these two archenemies of Tehran, Baku also has held strong strategic relations with the post-AKP Turkey, where the generals did not look at Iran favorably. Tehran, on the other hand, has also failed to approach Baku in a friendly manner, despite deep cultural and religious commonalities between both countries and a shared history (the trans-Aras river in Azerbaijan was part of Iran's territory before it was separated by two catastrophic wars with the Russians in the early 18th century.) Iran's lukewarm approach towards Baku has neither given the Republic of Azerbaijan adequately strong incentive to view Iran as a hostile neighbor, nor has it convinced the Azebaijanis to set foot on a path of productive relations.
Azerbaijan's recently revealed 1.5-billion dollar arms’ deal with Israel is seriously alarming, knowing that among the stock bound for Baku will be UAVs whose function is hardly helping to mend fences between Tehran and Baku.
To avert further threats, Iran should firstly gear up its diplomacy towards closeness with the Republic of Azerbaijan, all the while warning the rulers in Baku about the consequences of too much intimacy with Israel, which could put both Baku and Tel Aviv’s interests at stake. In the last two centuries, Iran has never started a war; but if any neighbors or regional rivals decide to discomfit Iran, it might then opt for deterrence. It is not in Baku’s interest to up the ante in its unproductive exchanges with Iran. The former Soviet republic has its own economic, security and social problems-- one explanation for its military cravings-- and should beware of provoking a powerful neighbor.
* Amir Mousavi is a strategic affairs analyst.