Syrian Protests and Lebanese Politics
The situation in Syria is increasingly complex, resulting in an emergency session held by the UN Security Council. Iranian Diplomacy interviewed Masoud Edrisi, Iran’s former ambassador to Lebanon, about the possibility of the West’s military intervention and the impact of Syria’s developments on Lebanon:
IRD: Syria has been in real turmoil during recent months, and the situation is deteriorating. What happens to the Resistance movement in Lebanon if Assad and his regime face further and bigger troubles?
ME: Syria has been the arch-patron of the Resistance in Lebanon. Bashar Assad and his father, Hafiz, were aware of the advantages of supporting the Resistance. However, there is room for hesitancy in claiming that Bashar Assad’s fall will undermine the Resistance in Lebanon. Any group taking power in Syria will still avoid normalizing ties with Israel, since the Jewish state has occupied the Syrian region of the Golan Heights. The Resistance will help Syria have a lever in its struggle to regain its lost territories.
IRD: Some analysts have mentioned a Shi’a-Sunni rift feeding the conflict in Syria. If true, will it spread to the factional politics of Lebanon?
ME: The rift in Syria is between the regime and the people, not between two religious denominations. But it is true that in Syria, the Alawites, who are a unique branch of Shi’a Islam, support the Alawite Assad family. The Shi’as in Lebanon are also supporters of the regime in Damascus. The Sunnis of Lebanon partially support Assad, but the pro-Hariris are definitely happy about Bashar Assad’s difficult times. In this regard, the conflict in Syria can fuel the tension between opposing poles in Lebanon.
IRD: How about Hezbollah?
IRD: They have openly expressed support for the Syrian government. Supporting the Syrian regime is naturally in their interest. But I think that Hezbollah’s latest statement was more realistic. It called for serious reforms, and the meeting of the Syrian citizens’ demands.
IRD: How likely do you see the possibility of military intervention by foreign countries in Syria?
ME: The West has not hidden its desire to interfere, but on the other hand we have Russia and China who have strongly opposed any foreign intervention. Their opposition diluted the UN Security Council’s statement about the Syrian developments, so chances of military intervention aren’t high. Syria won’t turn into another Libya, and meanwhile NATO’s aid to anti-Qaddafi forces in that country hasn’t even been successful.