Is TAPI Pipeline going to replace Peace Pipeline

By Mona Mashadi Rajabi

 

Indians have rejected the invitation by Iran’s Minister of Petroleum to join negotiations on the Peace Pipeline. The negotiations were supposed to be held on 14th-16th of January 2006 in Tehran with the attendance of the energy ministers of India, Iran, and Pakistan to resolve the remaining problems and finalize the contracts.

 

The outline of this contract was proposed in 1994 and the progresses were considerable at the initial stages. But with the escalation of tensions between Iran and West on nuclear issues and the consequent sanctions proposed by the United States and approved by UN, the process faced impediments.

 

It has been for some years that Indians are frequently postponing negotiations on the Peace Pipeline contract and during the last two years they have refused to attend many of the meetings.

 

The reason, in most of these cases, was claimed to be problems between India and Pakistan on transit fee and price of gas. But this looks more like an excuse than an acceptable reason to delay a project that provides energy for this country.

 

 

Seemingly, transit fee is the reason for India’s refusal to attend the meetings, but the concomitance of these excuses with Iran’s current situation within the international community raises questions.

 

Before the United States had toughened its stance against Iran on its nuclear plan and had convinced the world to force Iran to withdraw from nuclear activities -by imposing sanctions and economic pressure- India attended all the meetings. But the situation changed after the increasing tensions between Iran and the United States, successive visits of European and American officials to India, and continuous economic and political negotiations with Indian statesmen.

 

Some economic and political analysts believe that following the policies of the United States is the cause of Indian’s absence in tripartite negotiations of Peace Pipeline. They argue that Indians will not return to the table of negotiations unless Iran’s nuclear issue is solved, in other words, unless the sanctions are lifted.

 

The Indians do not reject this claim. Although Indian officials have never directly addressed the issue of Peace Pipeline in their speeches, some ponderable facts can be traced through their statements.

 

Indians have always called for the assistance of the United States in their process of economic and industrial progress. Recent reports have it that India intends to cooperate with the United States, since opposition to their policies is equal to political isolation. Superficially, this just a message of friendship from India to the United States, but deep within we can find out why Indians are reluctant to collaborate with Iran.

 

There is no direct reference to the Peace Pipeline, but a not-so-deep historical study and matchup between the periods of India’s absence and the United States’ policies on Iran, reveals that this country has followed a certain policy to prevent political isolation, which would bring forth economic isolation and economic crisis with itself.

 

On the other hand, the United States and Europe are major supporters of India. For instance, in the recent months nuclear contracts have been signed between Europe and India that prepare the grounds to provide India’s energy in the following years.

 

Expansion of commercial and economic ties between India and the United States, and increase in investment by Americans are other rewards the country received, just because of following the United States and distancing from Iran.

 

The last and most important reward that India has received from the United States by following a friendship policy is the plan to turn G8 into G13 and allow India to join the group of world’s industrial countries.

 

In this year’s Davos meeting, the world’s economic leaders stressed that G8 can be efficient and enforce effective macropolicies only when it admits 5 major developing countries and turn into G13.

 

The countries that are going to join this group include Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa which are all major centers in global economy, with a promising economic prospect.

 

India is a vast and populous country with a growing need of energy. Therefore, contraction of nuclear deals with European countries and the United States is highly important for this country. But how will India provide its energy until the exploitation of these nuclear power plants?

 

The Peace Pipeline that was supposed to transfer Iran’s natural gas to India through Pakistan could have a great role in providing energy for this country. But with Indians’ withdrawal, signing this contract faces uncertainties since the target market has departed from the cycle.

 

It has been stated repeatedly that the contract for construction of this 2777-kilometer pipeline will be signed even without India, but will this project be cost-effective if it’s not going to transfer gas to the enormous consumption market of India?

 

However, the main point is that India has started negotiations with Turkmenistan after renouncing a contract that was on its agenda for 13 years. Since 2 years ago, the country has attended negotiations between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan as an observer and recent news reveal that India is going to join the negotiations in future.

 

If this happens, Turkmenistan’s natural gas, which is exploited from the Caspian Sea, will be transferred to Pakistan, and later India, through Afghanistan. It is noteworthy that the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Pipeline (TAP) has a length of 1680 kilometers which is less than that of Peace Pipeline.

 

It seems that even with India’s participation in this project and construction of TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) Pipeline, it will be shorter than Peace Pipeline.

 

On the other hand, Turkmenistan that has stopped exporting its gas to Iran under the pretext of technical problems is entering a great market. After stopping gas export to Iran, they signed a 195 USD per 1000 cubic meters contract with China and currently they are at the outset of construction of pipeline that can bring their natural gas industry and economy enormous revenue.

 

According to Pakistani Daily Times, negotiations on TAPI were supposed to be held in 13th-16th of February, but due to upcoming elections Pakistan postponed the meeting to 24th of February. That’s when 14th-16th of February has been announced as the date of negotiations on Peace Pipeline in Tehran. Indians have refused to attend the negotiations and since the elections in Pakistan led to postponement of TAPI meeting, there are doubts on presence of Pakistan in the negotiations.