Realistic Foresight
NIE report on Iran has provided an opportunity that we must seize
The NIE report released on the early days of December 2007 struck politicians and analysts and rocked the world of politics. The international atmosphere, which was filled with United States and West’s invectives and Iran’s likely extreme reaction in the months leading to December, fell into a state of confusion after this report was issued, such that a lot of contradictory statements were made in the early days.
Definitely this report is highly important since it can reshape the international atmosphere and relations in Iran, Persian Gulf and the Middle East.
There are at least 4 crucial questions on this report that should be answered attentively by policymakers and decision makers:
What information does this report comprise and what are its intentions? According to Iran, which parts of these data are correct and which parts are incorrect and baseless?
Why has the report been issued at this certain time? Since this act necessarily requires authorization of the President, doesn’t it signal a conspiracy? Are there any covert political intentions behind the compilation and release of this report? How effective have international and domestic elements been in this case?
What are the likely consequences of the release of this report in the United States, Iran and international community?
Does it provide any opportunity for Iran or America, or both countries? If so, how can Iran take advantage of it?
The first two questions are not going to be fully elaborated here, since by studying the summary of the report which is accessible for public, accuracy or inaccuracy of the data can be found out quite clearly.
Different hypothesis are presented on the second question, each leading to a different result.
But whether we consider release of this report due to compulsion or a new conspiracy, we cannot reverse what has happened. The report has been released and it has had its impact on public opinion throughout the world. So we elaborate on third and fourth questions, which concern the likely consequences of this report in the United States, Iran and the international community.
Impact of the report on the United States:
Despite its negative points, the report has left a positive impact about Iran’s nuclear activities. As we know, the main allegation against Iran is that of intention to produce nuclear weapons. The NIE report has upended this claim, at least at the present time. Thus, the climate of hostility against Iran has faded.
In fact, public opinion does not consider Iran a threat in the short run. Change of atmosphere has had several outcomes:
1. In Bush’s government the situation has become better for those who favor cooperation and diplomatic solutions. It is said that Condoleezza Rice, Foreign Ministry diplomats and a group of military officials support cooperation and diplomacy. On the other side, Dick Cheney is leading a group that call for harsh –even military- measures against Iran. With no doubt, release of this report strengthens the basis of pro-diplomacy side and provides them an opportunity to prove that Iran is not a potential immediate threat.
2. The report has opened a gap inside the ruling Republican Party, even neo-Cons that support extreme measures against Iran, in such a way that after the issuance of the report some called for a turn in Bush’s policy on Iran. It is the first time that some hard-line neo-Cons have called for unconditional negotiations with Iran on all disputed issues.
3. The impact of this report on the Democratic Party has been also interesting. For Hillary Clinton, who had demanded harsh measures against Iran in several occasions, it was an unfortunate event. On the other hand, it has brought about credit for Barack Obama who always supports negotiations with Iran. Of course currently the general trend in the Democratic Party is dealing peacefully with Iran.
4. Due to these developments, the military atmosphere prepared for attack on Iran has totally lost its credibility. Therefore, media that provided fuel for war have toned downed their propaganda to some extent.
Impact of the report on European countries:
1. Release of this report has heavily influenced European media and politicians. What they ask is: “How could we follow the United States by baseless data and put ourselves to a lot of trouble?” In other words, release of this report has created an atmosphere of confusion and self-criticism among politicians and media.
2. Although European countries naturally consider themselves a strategic ally of America, the release of this report has relieved European statesmen who were constantly worried about military collision of the United States and Iran. This way they can contain sanctions to economic affairs. The reality is that European countries do not consider the military collision fruitful, but they are willing to defuse tension between the two countries.
Impact of the report on Israel:
According to Israeli hard-liners the report has foiled all their anti-Iran propaganda and it has hugely distressed them. Therefore, they immediately attempted to cast doubt on its validity. Definitely they will try to return the negative propagandistic atmosphere against Iran and depict a threatening image from the Islamic Republic.
Impact of the report on Arab countries:
1. The radical Arabs, who dreamt of military encounter between Iran and the United States and were even ready to jeopardize security of the region for the sake of their own interests, lost all their hopes with the release of this report;
2. But moderate Arab states and officials, who knew military encounter will be devastating for the region, were content with the release of this report and considered it beneficial for the region, at least in short-term.
3. Meanwhile Arab politicians are concerned if this report reduces tensions between Iran and America and increases Islamic Republic’s power. As many analysts and politicians believe, détente and compromise between Iran and the United States are naturally at odds with the interests of Arab states. Due to Iran’s capacity the United States will give more weight to Iran, which will consequently reduce the importance of Arab states in political equations of the region.
Impact of the report on Iran:
Naturally, Iran welcomes those parts of the report that point to non-existence of any military nuclear plan, and regards it as a sign of its rightfulness. But clearly we must avoid any shallow reaction and not be thrilled.
Despite negative and cautious points in the report, the positive impact of the report in moderating the threatening military atmosphere against Iran can’t be denied whatever. Although aware of the negative points of the report that demand consideration and relevant measures, I believe that at the present time we must focus on the opportunity created by the positive aspect of the report.
Opportunities provided by the report:
Definitely NIE report has created a climate among public opinion of the United States, so that its government not only puts aside extremism and military solution, but paves the way for an cooperation-based approach, just as we see a group of neo-Conservative and Democrat politicians have asked for a change in Bush’s policy towards Iran and unconditional negotiations with our country. This shows that the atmosphere inside the United States is ready for détente and interaction with Iran.
Despite these circumstances, the American statesmen insist that the report has not changed anything and previous policies of exertion of pressure on Iran must be continued. This is obviously at odds with the realistic diplomacy that United States used to be known for once. How could everything remain the same after this report?
The American government acts like nothing has changed, while it cannot be at all denied that the intelligence community of America has discarded the most serious allegation against Iran, i.e. military nuclear plan and doesn’t consider Iran a potential threat. Hence, America’s insistence on continuing pressure on Iran and ignoring the NIE report is totally unrealistic.
It seems that the report has also influenced political atmosphere inside Iran. At least, Iran thinks of itself as rightful and having a reinforced position. Before release of the report, a heavy and threatening atmosphere against Iran prevailed, but after the report was issued, threats and radical moves have reduced to a considerable extent.
If we believe that the current situation is better than before, we must regard it as a new opportunity and think of appropriate ways to take advantage of it. We should know that this conformable situation will not last for long and Iran’s enemies will attempt to tarnish our image once again by any means possible. Nobody can predict the conditions when time for the third resolution on economic sanctions arrives and propaganda against Iran reappear. Therefore, we must seize the chance to prove the rightfulness of our intentions and activities. Regardless of the outcome, Iran can declare its readiness for unconditional negotiations with the United States on all disputed issues.
This proposal has been announced by some officials of our country before, but it should be declared more publicly and by higher-rank officials to have the desirable impact at the international level. Although it is unlikely that Bush’s government welcomes Iran’s proposal of unconditional negotiations, the outcome will be beneficial for Iran at any rate. The advantages of such a move for our country will be:
If the United States rejects Iran’s proposal, it will face internal and international pressure. The gap among different groups and parties, now that the presidential elections’ campaigns are at the early stages, will widen. This will reduce international pressure on Iran.
If the United States accepts unconditional negotiations with Iran and adopts a realistic policy, Iran can take advantage of this opportunity and put forward its fundamental problems without expecting an instant solution.
Iran’s political prestige, as a power that seeks for peaceful solutions, will increase immediately and an appropriate face of Iran will be presented in the international scene.
The Islamic Republic’s weight in the region will increase and reach to its natural level. Inevitably, countries of the region will rethink their attitude towards Iran.
Economic pressures and existing sanctions will lose their efficiency. At least new sanctions will become unlikely.
Although the taboo of direct negotiations between Iran and the United States has been broken down on Iraq, negotiations on all the disputed issues is regarded as America’s withdrawal from its terms, acknowledgement of the Islamic Republic, and its rights in the region. This can lead to a better regional and international situation for Iran. Of course I believe that will be a win-win situation since détente will benefit both sides of the negotiations.
Since the aim of Iran’s foreign diplomacy is to reduce threats and tensions against its entity and transform them into normal relations; and since rising tensions with the United States threaten existence of the Islamic Republic, the primary objective of foreign diplomacy must be reduction of threats and tensions without abandonment of our values and principles.
Therefore, a correct understanding of the current circumstances and realistic foresight can lead us to adoption of an appropriate approach. Lost opportunities are what Iranian analysts have been always concerned about. This time, they have to be grasped through wisdom.