So Long Musharraf, Welcome Bhutto
By Mir Mahmoud Mousavi, Iran’s Former Ambassador to Pakistan
On Tuesday, after Pervez Musharraf ordered Pakistani police forces to besiege Binazir Bhutto’s residence in Lahore, she demanded for his resignation from both army command and presidency. She said: “it’s time for him to go”.
Bhutto has adopted a new stance which if she insists on Pakistan’s political stage will undergo significant developments. One year of negotiations between Binazir Bhutto and Musharraf’s representatives resulted in Musharraf’s conceding a part of his power. The basis of agreements was Musharraf’s presidency with his withdrawal from military position and Bhutto taking control of executive affairs through election. In this way democracy would be revived while Musharraf would reach a prestigious position.
Announcing state of emergency, reshuffling Judiciary and postponing elections was not a part of that agreement and was Musharraf’s personal decision that on the on hand forced his internal ally, Bhutto to take an aggressive stance and on the other hand compelled the foreign ally, namely the United States to order him with an undesirable tone and from the position of a superpower to change his stance. Of course elections date was reset following these events but still other problems remain.
Currently ending the state of emergency is the main want of Pakistan’s political parties and figures. Also some points should be considered:
1. The more Gen. Musharraf and army diagree the less General’s popularity will become. Due to its organization and background, Pakistani army won’t stand in front of people and if only one option between people and Musharraf is allowed it’ll choose the former.
2. During the past 6 years in their war against Al-Qaeda and radicalism in the region, the United States and Britain had adopted the strategy of supporting Pakistani army and its commander, Gen. Musharraf. During recent weeks Washington’s military and diplomatic officials have repeatedly stressed the necessity of this war and putting aside this policy by the United States looks far more than possible. To follow this policy America definitely needs Pakistan army’s full assistance, while Musharraf is needed only to some extent.
3. Just as General Musharraf has violated his agreement with Bhutto in cutting the cake of power and announced state of emergency, Binazir Bhutto has done the same and called for resignation of Pervez Musharraf from both his military and administrative positions. It cannot be said with certainty only a few hours after this decision that whether it’s a strategic decision by Bhutto and PPP party, a tactical one or even an emotional decision.
All three options may be probable. The decision can be tactical to make Musharraf adhere to the previous agreements. It can be strategic, namely it is made to get privileges further than the ones agreed upon before. A politician if veteran takes advantage from mistakes of the opposite side in an optimum way.
4. Necessity of sustaining the unity of Pakistan’s army as an ethnic military institution is an issue that brings around agreement of all domestic parties and groups and the country’s foreign supporters.
5. Control of the country, especially its northern frontier can never be handled to forces from outside the region. The geographical, ethnic and religious ties between this part and southern Afghanistan, and the presence of foreign extremists especially Al-Qaeda has caused an unstable situation, thus making choice touchy for involved parties, i.e. Pakistan Army, Pakistani politicians and the United States.
Conclusion: In Pakistan’s current situation Washington is concerned more than anyone else for the future of this nuclear country. It believes that both democracy and army are needed for Pakistan. The most desirable option for the United States is the previous option, which was an alliance between Musharraf and Bhutto. But if impossible can the status quo be tolerated? No.
A new alliance between army and politicians can be helpful. This means Musharraf’s concession of power and Bhutto’s third premiership besides the army. That prospect is much probable since region is passing critical days.