Hezbollah and the Post-Rafik Era

Lebanon’s ever-complicated state today seems to be different from previous developments in its nature. Political actors, parties and factions will enter into new arrangements, where old friends trade barbs and enemies will move in one camp. Unity, the cornerstone of Lebanon’s stability, which also drove cooperation in the parliament and the cabinet, has now actually vanished.

The origin of the crisis lies in Saad Hariri’s equivocal behavior toward Hezbollah. The Resistance, with its invaluable experience and unique brand of patriotism, was the linchpin of stability and security in Lebanon. Its integration into Lebanese politics and its rise as a civil political force is indispensable. With its distinguished history, Hezbollah cannot tolerate the dualistic behavior of Hariri and his regional allies.

Assassinations can end a cycle of developments, or start it. The February 2005 blast which killed Rafik Hariri definitely is of the second type; a controversial dossier which triggered a domino effect of developments that affected not only Lebanon, but also Syria and the broader Middle East: Emile Lahoud ceded the presidential post, Omar Karami’s cabinet was a story of failure, and no 14^th of March-led cabinet could claim success. Saad Hariri’s Future Movement took grip of power, Syrian forces left Lebanon –and with that their security domination over Lebanese affairs disappeared, Damascus and Riyadh forged a Beirut-oriented alliance, and Hezbollah was falsely accused.

During my tenure in Paris (as Iran’s ambassador) I had the opportunity to establish a close friendship with the late Rafik Hariri. During our numerous meetings in Paris -in which we discussed Lebanese and regional affairs- the then prime minister of Lebanon openly expressed his opposition to Syria’s presence in Lebanon while supporting Hezbollah’s participation in Lebanon’s political process. In our last meeting in his residence, Rafik Hariri clarified his stance on Hezbollah and Middle East affairs. He told me that he knew Hezbollah was the genuine symbol of Lebanon’s resistance and that he respected the movement, as it guaranteed Lebanon’s security and stability. Mr. Hariri also said that Hassan Nasrullah was a braver man than we was, since he devoted his son, Muhammad Hadi Nasrullah, to the cause of Lebanon. However, he did not try to conceal his notion that the age of Syria’s security and military presence and its intervention in Lebanon should come to an end. The late Lebanese prime minister also pointed to a bitter meeting he had recently had with Bashar Assad, where he was threatened by the Syrian president. Hariri stressed his continuous efforts via the EU, the UN Security Council and other international organizations in order to force Syria to leave Lebanese soil and begin having diplomatically conventional ties with Lebanon. Rafik Hariri was confident about his re-election to the premiership, and he told me that there were many civil and political projects that he wanted to accomplish.

Clearly, Mr. Hariri was aware of the position Hezbollah had earned among all political groups and factions in Lebanon, due to its resistance and its expulsion of Israeli troops from south Lebanon, and he knew that any opposition to Hezbollah would just enhance its opponents. He never spoke to me of disarmament of Hezbollah, but knew that the strong security presence and manifest meddling in Lebanese politics had powerfully eroded Damascus’ legitimacy and popularity. Cognizant of the anti-Syrian sentiment prevailing in Lebanon, Hariri was poised to employ it as the driving force of his political campaign in order to grasp victory for his camp.

It was no secret that Syria and Hariri were strongly at odds. The silent battle between the Lebanese prime minister and Syria had even stretched to regional and international affairs, resulting in France and the US siding together, despite their bitter difference over the invasion of Iraq. One week after Hariri’s assassination, on the 22^nd of February, George W. Bush gave a harsh anti-Syria speech and voiced support for Lebanon. The US president called on Syria to “end its occupation of Lebanon” and accused Damascus of backing terrorism in Iraq and the Middle East. Two weeks earlier, on the 8^th of February 2005, a new round of anti-Syrian efforts was launched in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt—in the so-called peace talks—with Ariel Sharon’s remarks and Mahmoud Abbas’ promise to curb the Resistance. In the post-assassination era and the formation of successive, unsuccessful governments of Omar Karami, Najib Mikati, Fouad Siniora and Saad Hariri, Hezbollah tried to play a national, ultra-factional role, and took decisive steps to reinforce Lebanon’s stability. Nevertheless, Hezbollah never overlooked Syria’s historical role in Lebanon. While it regarded Syria as a strategic partner in trans-Lebanese affairs, in domestic arrangements, Hezbollah prioritized unity over any other concern. Flexibility and resistance, handled aptly by Hezbollah, were the two principles of its decision-making.

However, it seems that fortune has smiled on Syria since last year. In a surprising move, on July 30^th, 2010, Saudi King Abdullah –who harbored a grudge against Bashar Assad and his father- and the Syrian president made a visit to Beirut to hold discussions with Lebanese President Michelle Suleyman in order to mitigate the consequences of the verdict of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). The Emir of Qatar and Husni Mubarak of Egypt also joined the team to formulate a new equation for Lebanon. It seemed that a new age of affairs had started in Lebanon, one that attempted to sideline Hezbollah in Lebanon (and the Resistance movement in general), beside Iran and Turkey.

Syrians, once the prime suspects in Rafik Hariri’s murder and known as the cause of instability in Lebanon, had now understood that diplomacy is also an option which could help them get closer to France, the United States and Saudi Arabia. Despite last year’s cordiality with old enemies, so far there have been no signals indicating that Damascus is going to make a trade-off on Iran, Hezbollah, and its attitude towards Israel.

With the Hezbollah-backed ministers’ resignations from Saad Hariri’s cabinet, the crisis has moved into a new stage. Difficult times for 14^th of March have arrived, as Hezbollah’s roots run deep in Lebanese civil society and the Shi’a group has been the only Arab party which has shattered the invincible image of the Zionist regime in more than half a century of humiliation of Arabs by Israel. It was Hezbollah’s devotion in the 33-day war against Israel that blocked the rapacity of Israel and some Arab leaders. Now, with the fall of Saad Hariri’s cabinet in this self-inflicted crisis, Hezbollah will once again prove its capability to manage the crisis, and play a regional political role while reinforcing its legitimacy.

Sadegh Kharrazi is Iran’s former ambassador to France under the Reformist Seyyed Mohammad Khatami.