Iran and Russia: Ups and Downs

 

 

It seems that distrust, role-playing and rivalry can be known as the three significant features of Iran-Russia ties, at least in the past two centuries.

Since the wars of the early 19^th century that led to 1813 Golestan treaty and 1828 Turkmenchay treaty that imposed unfair and heavy indemnity on Iran, a barrier of suspicion and distrust was formed between the two countries. Russia’s intervention and influence on the Qajar court, especially on Mohammad Shah and Mohammad Ali Shah reign, reinforced this barrier.

People’s spontaneous attack on the Russian embassy and murder of Griboyedov and his companions revealed their true feeling towards Russia and the ignominious treaty of Turkmenchay. Iranians have not forgotten their crushing defeat from Russia and Golestan and Turkmenchay yet and have always lamented the loss of a great part of its territory.

Later events in Russia, i.e. the Bolshevik Revolution and country’s transformation into a union of soviet republics with a communist regime didn’t moderate this negative attitude. Russia didn’t abandon its expansionist intentions in different parts of the world, especially Iran, even when it claimed to follow an anti-imperialistic agenda.

In other words neither ideology shift nor transformation from Tzarian Russia into Socialist Republic affected priorities and national and international interests of the country and Soviet Union always viewed Iran as a country that must fall under its influence, just as Russia did.

During the reign of the Pahlavi dynasty Iran’s occupation by Allies -including USSR and Britain (and later the United States)- the Soviet Union army’s refusal to withdraw from Iran’s Azerbaijan and its inclination to occupy some other parts of our country added insult to injury.

Supporting foundation of the puppet Toudeh (Masses) Party, overt intervention in internal political affairs and playing a destructive role in various critical moments, are other dark points in Russia’s record. But the darkest point of this record may be Soviet Union and Toudeh Party’s hush against the American coup of August 19^th, 1953 and consenting overthrow of Dr. Mosaddeq’s government.

No wonder that later followers of Marxist ideology in Iran tried to shun the treacherous Toudeh Party.

With the Islamic Revolution taking place, although the affairs between the two countries have seen many ups and downs, but still the distrust hasn’t lessened. From this point of view the post-Revolution ties of the two countries can be divided into four periods:

First period, deep changes that resulted from the Islamic Revolution and people’s revolutionary mood;

Second period, Iran-Iraq War;

Third period, the 1990s and Yeltsin’s presidency;

Fourth period; after year 2000 and Putin’s era;

In all these periods the course of events has been such that the basic problems couldn’t be resolved.

The Islamic Revolution may be the most important political event in Russia’s vicinity of the zenith of country’s tug of war with the United States. Iran suddenly became an anti-American country and consequently, not only it relinquished its hostility towards Russia –a result of its alliance with America- but it joined Soviet Union in its anti-Imperialistic agenda and even exceeded that country in occasions.

Although this was a costless victory for Soviet Union, but instead of fence-mending USSR attacked Afghanistan unexpectedly and occupied the country. At the same time it tried to extend its influence on Islamic Iran. In other words, even the occurrence of the Islamic Revolution in Iran didn’t force Soviet Union to rethink its strategic goals in Iran.

During Iran’s war with Iraq, although the Russians witnessed Iran’s resistance against West to defend its sovereignty and Islamic identity, they didn’t stop helping Iraq. Worse, they refused any assistance to our country.

T-72 tanks and MiG 29s were used against Iran and Iran was to a large extent deprived from high-tech Russian equipments. Only Hashemi Rafsanjani’s post-war visit to Soviet Union and meeting Gorbachev started a new era in military co-operations of the two countries. So the war period doesn’t include any positive developments in the affairs of two countries either.

The third period, namely the years of Yeltsin’s tenure can be considered as the period of Russia’s inclination towards the United States. No major developments took place in mutual ties and no important and strategic political or even economic event took place to improve Russians’ face for Iranians and break down the distrust barrier. Although this period, is one of transition for Russia, but this country’s rapport with the United States was a cause of concern for Iran. That’s why distrust remained the most important feature of Iran-Russia ties.

Age of Putin is known for reconstruction of identity and Russia’s new aiming after dissolution and Cold War.

Of course we must keep in mind that this reconstruction is due to two important developments: first, the 9/11 attack that Putin exploited it in the best way and second, Iran’s nuclear issue thanks to which with admirable role-playing Russia realized its dream to become a world power. What happens at the following of this period is a lime test for both countries. The extent of Russia’s success depends on future. Putin’s visit of Iran is an opportunity for both hope and despair.

Iran’s most important political cards in its deal with Russia are the anti-American stances. Although from an ideological point of view they can’t be dealt, but these stances have a highly political value.

Meanwhile we must know that we should insist on these stances when it’s critical and our strategic interests are concerned. Even if we take the correctness of our stances as granted the other party has to appreciate our beliefs and respond properly.

A senior national security official of Russia has been quoted as answering the question “Is there anything more dangerous than a nuclear Iran for you?” with “Yes, an Iran that’s friends with the United States”. Overt expression of such an opinion is something extraordinary and Russia has always avoided confessing this truth. But anyway it’s a highly important fact that Russian officials must never forget, especially in the current critical situation.

At a time when on the one hand, Putin thinks of remaining in Russia’s political structure and on the other hand, he endeavors for revival of his country past influence, he should know that Iran’s anti-American stance or even its non-alliance position, is a blessing that can be used appropriately. Take the case of Azerbaijan Republic that was one of Soviet Republics for years and now it has brought the United States to the gates of Russia. That’s when Russia must appreciate independence and resistance of a great country like Iran against America.

Iran has always been Russia’s entrance ticket to become international. In fact, Iran has been Russia’s main gate to the power’s global scene and its market. With Iran as a card Russia has managed to occupy a role for centuries and be considered as a major world power.

Russia’s natural allies such as Ukraine, Belorussia, Georgia, Armenia etc. have never had the capacity to prepare for Russia a global position in diplomacy. Therefore; playing with card of Iran against other countries especially the United States is highly important.

There’s no doubt that Putin has admirably used Iran’s nuclear issue to obtain an international and render himself a party for huge international deals and pacts. Experiences of recent years show that Russia has managed to receive bonuses from America and other Western countries for taking every stance against Iran.

On the one hand Russia pretends to share the same (baseless) concerns with West about Iran’s nuclear power and due to this it acts cautiously in its co-operations with Iran. On the other hand it pretends to be a supporter of Iran that opposes any military act against our country.

To be straightforward Russia has sold the first stance to West and the second one to Iran. That is exactly the proof of Putin’s wisdom and adroitness: selling a nuclear stance to two major customers at the same time and achieving two goals simultaneously. Bushehr power plant’s activities are postponed each time for financial excuses, so that Putin finds more time to sell his stances to West. The same analysis counts for supply of the Bushehr power plant’s fuel that had to be delivered to Iran last March and hasn’t arrived yet.

However, due to its inherent position, including support of proud people, a respectful history and civilization, geographical and strategic position and unique underground resources, Iran is an international country which its events and developments affect the international community. Therefore our country must appreciate the value of its own card in the global power game and use it appropriately. This card can be used free from ideological considerations and in a pragmatistic framework to serve national interests.

The last point is that in the recent years Russia has used its energy policy as a major tool to attain its goals in foreign diplomacy. Russia’s gas and oil have been the country’s spring board to consolidate its position in Europe and the world.

That’s why Russia carefully monitors measures of other gas and oil suppliers such as Iran. In clearer words, Russia considers Iran a rival in energy field and is concerned if Iran provides gas for Europe. Europe can think of no other country than Iran to provide its gas, since Iran has the second largest supply of gas in the world.

Russia also considers Iran a rival in the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Any energy deal or co-operation with former Soviet Unions such as Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Armenia or Georgia pictures a competitive atmosphere.

Iran’s gas export to Armenia and purchase of the entire gas network of Armenia by Gas Prom is an instance of this latent competition. Iran and Russia share the same zone in energy and results of this rivalry can be observed in projects that Iran tends to participate in.

The same story is true in Russia’s tendency to play the first role in transporting gas to Europe through Turkey and Nabuco pipeline. Gas Prom’s deals in Hungary –a Nabuco member- to control its energy network, or attempts to enter Austria and OMV company, are all aimed to make Europe dependent on Russia and deprive other country’s, especially Iran, from participation in this field.

From what was said we can conclude that distrust, role-playing and rivalry are significant features of Iran-Russia ties that depending on conditions, are manifested more or less in different periods.

Russia is responsible for the first feature, i.e. distrust and it must lower its level with proper behavior. Co-operation and commitment to agreements and treaties are the most obvious things that should be done in this respect. We hope that Putin’s promises in his visit to Tehran will be actualized completely and Russia passes this test of trust with success. In the current situation Iran will definitely appreciate Russia’s loyalty. However, if Putin and Russia disavow their commitments, this distrust gap will definitely widen.

But about Russia playing with a card named Iran or even its competition with Iran in energy field, the responsibility must be distributed between Russia, West and Iran. The United States responsibility is more than Iran and Russia due to its negative stances and irrational enmity with the Islamic Revolution and Iran.

We can’t expect more than that from Russia, because the country seeks to enhance its position and increase its power through a pragmatistic paradigm. The last thing is Iran’s duty to control the situation and set balance for its own interest. That’s the big will of all Iranians.